Democrats are closing the gap within the heated race to manage the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections, based on recent surveys and political analysts.
Though Republicans are generally still expected to take a majority within the House — for now — the races are growing tighter.
Republicans have held a narrow lead over Democrats this yr in polls asking which party voters would support in a congressional election. But FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates top public-opinion surveys, reported that Democrats grabbed a half-percentage point advantage this month.
FiveThirtyEight attributes the gain and surprise wins for Democrats in two Latest York special elections earlier this month to anger concerning the Republican-hailed death of Roe v. Wade. “If the midterms were tomorrow, the Republicans may be in trouble,” one in all FiveThirtyEight’s recent podcasts noted.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s approval rating has also ticked up. A recent Gallup survey put Biden’s job approval rating at 44%, the very best in a yr.
By way of House seats, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report lowered its projection for GOP pickups to between 10 to twenty seats — down from its previous 15 to 30 seats.
Cook also didn’t rule out the likelihood that Democrats could hold on to the bulk with an increased voter turnout, which is widely expected this yr from an agitated electorate.
Typically, the party in power “doesn’t improve its electoral prospects in the ultimate months of a midterm, but that’s where we look like,” noted Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin of nonpartisan election watcher Inside Elections, The Wall Street Journal reported.
In addition they chalk up Democrats’ improving fortunes to anger at Republicans over the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade — in addition to to weak Republican candidates in key races, ongoing investigations into Donald Trump, and a drop in gas prices.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) last week rained on Republicans’ parade when he indicated the GOP won’t accomplish that well within the Senate due to issues with candidate “quality.”
“I feel there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell told reporters, NBC News reported. “Senate races are only different — they’re statewide. Candidate quality has loads to do with the end result.”
McConnell didn’t name candidates he imagine are quality-challenged. But his dig reflected frustrations within the GOP about controversial Republican Senate candidates endorsed by Trump with little or no political experience who’re stumbling generally election polls. Those include most notably former TV personality Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, creator and investment banker J.D. Vance in Ohio, and former football star Herschel Walker in Georgia.
As for Democrats, Jaime Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the “momentum” for the party is “real.”
He predicts the Democrats will gain Senate seats and hang on to the House majority.
Centrist Republican Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland just isn’t optimistic the GOP will take the Senate or any extra gubernatorial seats. He, like, McConnell, complained about “weak candidates.”
But Hogan is hopeful Republicans will grab the House.
This yr was a terrific opportunity for Republicans, Hogan said on “Face the Nation.”
“But we could blow it by nominating unelectable people — and that’s exactly what’s happening across the country and why the wave goes to be more of a ripple slightly than a tidal wave,” he said.