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Dolphins vs. Bills prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NFL playoff picks, best bets by expert on 26-14 roll


The Miami Dolphins will try to drag off an upset after they visit the Buffalo Bills for an NFL Super Wild Card Weekend 2023 matchup on Sunday on CBS and Paramount+. The AFC East rivals split their two regular-season meetings, however the Dolphins (9-8) limp into the NFL playoffs 2023 with multiple injuries. They arrive off a listless 11-6 home victory against the Jets that followed a six-game losing streak. Now they face Buffalo (13-3), a team that has won seven straight. Miami has had serious issues at quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa coping with concussions much of the season and sitting out Sunday. The Bills don’t have any such problem, with MVP candidate Josh Allen leading certainly one of the league’s top offenses.

Kickoff is about for 1 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 14-point favorite in its latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Bills vs. Dolphins picks or NFL playoff bets, be sure that you try the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend predictions from SportsLine’s resident Dolphins expert, Larry Hartstein. You may stream the sport on Paramount+, which you may try free for seven days.

A former lead author for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines an unlimited network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. He entered the 2022 NFL season 427-344 all-time on NFL side picks (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.

As well as, Hartstein has a powerful feel for Miami’s strengths and weaknesses and is 26-14-1 on his last 41 picks in Dolphins games, returning $1,044 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has taken a detailed take a look at Dolphins vs. Bills and just revealed his expert picks and predictions. You may head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Listed here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Dolphins: 

  • Dolphins vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -14
  • Dolphins vs. Bills over/under: 44 points  
  • Dolphins vs. Bills money line: Miami +650, Buffalo -1000 
  • MIA: Dolphins are 21-13-2 against the spread in division games over the past five seasons 
  • BUF: Bills are 34-23-4 ATS as favorites under Sean McDermott (since 2017) 
  • Dolphins vs. Bills picks: See picks here
  • Dolphins vs. Bills live stream: Paramount+

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is 8-7-1 against the spread this season, and 6-4-1 ATS against AFC opponents. They’ve won eight of the past nine meetings and should not have much trouble coping with Miami’s offense. The Dolphins rush for just 99 yards per game (twenty fifth in NFL) and their star quarterback is out. The Bills yield 18 points per game, second-fewest within the league, and Miami has topped 21 points once over its past seven games. Buffalo’s offense leads the league in third-down conversion percentage (50.3) and is seventh on defense, while Miami is twenty fourth on either side.      

Allen leads the league’s No. 2 offense in total yards (398 per game) and scoring (28.4). Miami’s defense is twenty seventh against the pass (235 YPG) and allows 23.5 points per contest (twenty fourth). Along with his 4,283 passing yards (seventh in NFL), the MVP candidate is second on the team with 746 rushing yards. He’s tied for second with 35 TD passes and has eight on the bottom. The Bills outgained the Dolphins by 285 yards of their loss in Miami, and Allen threw for 400 yards within the matchup. They didn’t rating twice from contained in the 2-yard line within the fourth quarter. See which team to choose here.

Why the Dolphins can cover

The underdog is 4-1-1 against the spread prior to now six meetings and Miami is 5-1 ATS in division games this season. The Dolphins have certainly one of the league’s best passing offenses and while they are going to surely miss Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are each big-time playmakers. Hill is second within the NFL with 1,710 receiving yards, while Waddle has 1,356 and averages greater than 18 per reception. The offense is fourth in passing yards per game (265), sixth in total yards (364) and eleventh in scoring (23.4). Miami is also second in yards per play at 6.1.

The Dolphins blitz on the second-highest rate (38%) and have 40 sacks, so that they should have the opportunity to place pressure on Bills quarterback Josh Allen. In addition they rank fourth against the run, yielding 103 yards per game, so they are going to try to make the Bills one-dimensional. The 2 meetings this season were decided by a complete of 5 points, and Miami has the boldness from being certainly one of the three teams to beat Buffalo this season. See which team to choose here.

Learn how to make NFL Playoffs or Dolphins vs. Bills picks

Hartstein has broken down this matchup from all sides, and he’s leaning under on the purpose total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping throughout one side of the spread. He’s only sharing his Bills vs. Dolphins pick, and the remaining of his expert NFL evaluation, at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Dolphins in Sunday’s NFL Wild Card matchup? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Larry Hartstein’s Bills vs. Dolphins picks and evaluation, all from the NFL expert who’s 26-14 on his last 41 picks involving Miami, and discover. Do not forget to stream the sport on Paramount+ with a seven-day free trial.

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