HARRISBURG, Pa. — In the identical spot where he spoke to hundreds of individuals at a raucous State Capitol rally demanding an end to pandemic restrictions in April 2020, Doug Mastriano appeared on Saturday before a crowd of just just a few dozen — about half of whom were volunteers for his ragtag campaign for governor of Pennsylvania.
Mr. Mastriano, an insurgent state senator who within the spring cruised to the Republican nomination, is learning this fall that while it’s one thing to win a crowded G.O.P. primary on the back of online fame and Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, it is kind of one other to prevail in a general election in a battleground state of nearly 13 million people.
He’s being heavily outspent by his Democratic rival, has had no television ads on the air since May, has chosen to not interact with the state’s news media in ways that may push his agenda, and trails by double digits in reputable public polling and most private surveys.
There’s no sign of cavalry coming to his aid, either: The Republican Governors Association, which helps the party’s nominees in Arizona, Michigan and 6 other states, has no current plans to help Mr. Mastriano, in accordance with individuals with knowledge of its deliberations.
The Pennsylvania governor’s race is maybe probably the most consequential within the country. Mr. Mastriano, a retired Army colonel who chartered buses to the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that led to the attack on the Capitol, has vowed to ban abortion without exceptions and pledged to enact sweeping recent voting restrictions. He could be more likely to accomplish those measures given the Republican advantage within the State Legislature.
However the stakes aren’t apparent based on Mr. Mastriano’s limited resources. There may be little indication that he has built a campaign infrastructure beyond the Facebook videos that propelled him to stardom in right-wing circles and to the vanguard of Christian nationalist politics.
“I can’t even assess things because I don’t see a campaign,” said Matt Brouillette, the president of Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs, an advocacy group that could be a major player in Pennsylvania Republican politics. “I’ve not seen anything that’s even a semblance of a campaign.”
Mr. Brouillette, who backed certainly one of Mr. Mastriano’s rivals within the G.O.P. primary, added: “Now, possibly he knows something we don’t on how you’ll be able to win within the fifth-largest state without doing TV or mail. But I suppose we’re going to need to wait until Nov. 8 to see whether you’ll be able to pull something like that off.”
Mr. Brouillette’s organization is the just one to air any television ads attacking Josh Shapiro, the state attorney general who won the Democratic primary for governor uncontested at the same time as he spent $400,000 to assist lift Mr. Mastriano to victory within the Republican primary.
But while Commonwealth Partners has paid for 811 television ads urging Pennsylvanians to “vote Republican” against Mr. Shapiro, the Democratic nominee’s campaign has broadcast greater than 23,000 ads promoting himself and attacking Mr. Mastriano for the reason that May primary, in accordance with AdImpact, a media-tracking firm.
Republicans elsewhere who, with Mr. Trump’s endorsement, won primaries against the needs of their local political establishments are facing similar disparities in TV promoting in the ultimate weeks of the midterm campaigns. Together with Mr. Mastriano in Pennsylvania, Trump-backed candidates for governor in five other states — Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts and Michigan — have combined to air zero television advertisements since winning their primaries.
Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona, the R.G.A.’s co-chairman, was asked about whether he views Mr. Mastriano as a viable candidate during a question-and-answer session this month at Georgetown University.
The State of the 2022 Midterm Elections
With the primaries over, each parties are shifting their focus to the overall election on Nov. 8.
“We don’t fund lost causes and we don’t fund landslides,” Mr. Ducey said. “You have got to point out us something, you’ve got to exhibit you can move numbers and you’ll be able to raise resources.”
In polls of Pennsylvania this month, each The Morning Call of Allentown and CBS News showed Mr. Shapiro with a lead of 11 percentage points over Mr. Mastriano, a bonus that has greater than doubled for the reason that primary. Probably the most recent campaign finance reports show that Mr. Mastriano’s campaign account had just $397,319, compared with $13.5 million for Mr. Shapiro.
Mr. Mastriano’s supporters say he’s following a Pennsylvania playbook written by Mr. Trump. They’re counting on a surge of under-the-radar grass-roots enthusiasm on Election Day and a political environment by which Republicans are motivated by anger with President Biden.
“I wish that Senator Mastriano had the cash to be on the air,” said Charlie Gerow, a longtime Pennsylvania Republican operative who finished well behind Mr. Mastriano in the first. He added, “But his nontraditional campaign appears to be working.”
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There isn’t lots of evidence that’s true.
Mr. Mastriano, who this 12 months spent $5,000 attempting to recruit supporters on the far-right social media platform Gab, never built a military of small donors of the kind which have powered anti-establishment candidates elsewhere — including Mr. Trump.
“Really not finding lots of support from national-level Republican organizations, so we’re calling on people across Pennsylvania and across america of America to offer on to our campaign,” a glum-looking Mr. Mastriano said in a video on Facebook last week. “These large groups, we’ve got not seen much assistance coming from them.”
The video solicitation demonstrates the bounds of Mr. Mastriano’s unorthodox campaign. Since he posted it on Wednesday, about 4,700 people have viewed the request — a small fraction of the weekly audience of thousands and thousands for Mr. Shapiro’s deluge of television promoting, not to say his ubiquity within the Pennsylvania news media.
In response to Mr. Shapiro’s campaign, he answered questions or conducted interviews with 41 Pennsylvania newspapers, television and radio stations through the first three weeks of September. Through the same time period, Mr. Mastriano — who speaks only to conservative news organizations and podcasts — spoke with just three Pennsylvania outlets, in accordance with media trackers.
Those in the gang on Saturday applauded Mr. Mastriano for what they viewed as his taking the fight to the news media. Supporters said his social media presence could be good enough to counter Mr. Shapiro’s enormous financial advantage.
“He has no must spend money,” said Theresa Wickert, a retiree from Lebanon County, Pa. “It’s grass-roots. He has never put out a industrial against anyone the best way that Shapiro and the others are putting them out. Never. He won’t ever try this. That will not be who he’s.”
Mr. Mastriano declined an invite to an Oct. 3 debate at a dinner hosted by the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry, the primary time in many years the organization has not held a debate between the state’s major-party candidates for governor. Mr. Shapiro will as an alternative answer questions before business leaders at a “fireside chat,” a possibility Mr. Mastriano also rejected.
After chatting with about 60 people on Saturday — days before, his running mate, Carrie Lewis DelRosso, had urged supporters to attend “the large rally” — Mr. Mastriano hustled to a waiting S.U.V. while avoiding questions from reporters. A Pennsylvania state trooper shoved an area newspaper reporter out of the best way as he tried asking Mr. Mastriano if he would accept the results of the November election.
Aides to Mr. Mastriano didn’t reply to messages and declined to reply questions on the rally.
Mr. Mastriano has resisted private entreaties from supporters to have interaction more with the news media — if only to spread his message to potential small-dollar donors.
“Now we have type of a fundamental distrust as conservatives that we don’t get a good shake,” State Representative Mike Jones, certainly one of the warm-up speakers for Mr. Mastriano on Saturday, said in an interview beforehand. “But whenever you’re at a financial drawback, you’ve got to get on the market and make the most of free media at any time when you’ll be able to.”
There’s not much help coming for Mr. Mastriano from the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, which was sufficiently in need of money that, in a real-life Hail Mary, it sold its Harrisburg state headquarters in June to the Catholic church round the corner for $750,000.
Mr. Shapiro has sought to fill the void left by Mr. Mastriano’s aversion to the news media and his inability to afford promoting, attempting to win over moderate Republicans who could be postpone by Mr. Mastriano’s far-right proposals.
Mr. Shapiro has said he would appoint two parents to the state’s Board of Education and has endorsed Republican laws to permit parents in a number of the state’s public schools to make use of state aid for personal school tuition — a move that drew praise on The Wall Street Journal’s conservative editorial page.
Mr. Shapiro said he had little sympathy for Mr. Mastriano’s aversion to the press corps.
“The query I even have after I have a look at his tactics regarding the media is, you already know, what’s he hiding?” Mr. Shapiro said in an interview. “If he can’t answer questions from the Pennsylvania local media, how are you going to possibly be governor?”
Mr. Mastriano’s rally on Saturday was a hodgepodge of the state’s minor right-wing figures, many who got here to prominence fighting public health restrictions early within the pandemic. A half-dozen men wearing uniforms of an area militia group, the South Central Pennsylvania Patriots, patrolled the grounds while a vendor stood behind a merchandise table without moving much product.
During one speech, a state representative, David Zimmerman, revealed for the primary time that he had received a subpoena from the F.B.I. in its investigation of efforts to overturn the 2020 election. “The F.B.I. searched for me all day long,” he said. “But what I did that they didn’t know is, I turned my phone tracker off.”
Mr. Mastriano’s supporters said there was little reason to imagine the gang was indicative of his support.
They cited an array of explanations for the double-digit crowd — a Penn State college football game up the road in State College, the annual Irish Fall Festival on the Jersey Shore and Facebook, the unique source of much of Mr. Mastriano’s popularity.
“This is sweet evidence of being shadow-banned on Facebook,” said the event’s organizer, a Philadelphia-area Uber and Lyft driver named Mike Daino who said he’d been kicked off the platform nine times for spreading misinformation. “They’re banning conservative talk. But let’s proceed on with this system.”