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England vs. Senegal odds, pick, prediction

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Industrial content 21+.

After cruising through the World Cup up to now in Group B with seven points and a +7 goal differential, England now begins the knockout rounds with a match against Senegal, who finished second in Group A behind the Netherlands. 

The Three Lions are a -500 favorite to advance and -190 to win in 90 minutes.  Does that price flatter England an excessive amount of?

Below we preview the World Cup Round of 16 matchup between England and Senegal starting at 2 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.

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England vs. Senegal prediction

On the surface, England’s ends in the group stage look terrific. The Three Lions outscored their opposition, 9-2, and posted a +2.9 expected goal differential in three matches against Iran, the USA and Wales. But should you look a bit deeper, you’ll notice that each one of that damage got here against Iran and Wales, two teams that prefer to take a seat deep and defend in low blocks because they’re weak within the midfield. 

England defeated Iran, 6-2, and dominated Wales, 3-0, but against the Americans, the Three Lions struggled in a 0-0 draw. You would make a salient argument that the USMNT was the higher side in that matchup, even when the expected goals, which ended 0.8 to 0.6 in favor of England, suggested it was a coin flip.

The important thing to success for the Americans was within the midfield, where they were capable of compete with England’s pivot of Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham. Senegal won’t have dynamic central midfielder Idrisse Gana Gueye, however the Lions of Teranga should offer so much more competition in the midst of the sphere than Iran and Canada did. Nampalys Mendy, Pathe Ciss and Papa Gueye aren’t on the identical level as Rice and Bellingham, but they need to have the option to place up more of a fight than what England saw of their two victories. 

Declan Rice of EnglandDeclan Rice of England Getty Images

Moreover, there are some concerns about how England will play this match from a stylistic standpoint. While the Three Lions took the handbrake off against Iran and Wales, they were more tepid against the USMNT. That’s nothing recent for this team, as Gareth Southgate prefers to play things closer to the vest against more dangerous opposition, especially when the stakes are high.

The essential criticism of Southgate during his tenure is that, despite having more talent than almost every team on the planet, his conservative approach allows other teams to stay around against England and punish them in the event that they catch a break or the Three Lions aren’t quite on the races. 

Even without Gueye and Sadio Mane, this Senegal side is athletic, quick and talented. They’re in a totally different tier in comparison with Iran and Wales, and will cause England a number of the same problems that they’d in a 0-0 result against the USMNT. 

Betting on the World Cup?

England can definitely come out and impose their will against a less-talented Senegal side, but there are some signals pointing to a fairly close tilt on Sunday. And when you concentrate on that Wales, which is a much worse team than Senegal, closed around this price of their match against England, you’ll be able to make an honest case that the Lions of Teranga are undervalued based on the spot here. No person expects England to get bounced within the Round of 16 by Senegal and that’s impacting how this game is being priced.

It’s a bet you lose more often than you win, but Senegal are value a sprinkle on the three-way moneyline on Sunday.

England vs. Senegal pick

Senegal three-way moneyline +650 (FanDuel)

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