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Rising prices, fallout from the war in Ukraine and continuing supply chain chokeholds slowed growth world wide in the primary months of the yr and hobbled efforts by major economies to recuperate from the pandemic.

The most recent evidence got here on Friday, when the European Union said the 19 countries that use the euro grew only 0.2 percent overall during January, February and March compared with the previous three months.

Sooner or later earlier, the US announced that its economy had shrunk 0.4 percent over the identical period. China, the world’s second-largest economy behind the US, reported signs of great weakness this month as one other wave of Covid-19 prompted widespread lockdowns.

“The overarching message is that the worldwide growth outlook is souring, and it’s deteriorating at a faster rate and in a more serious way than most analysts have anticipated,” said Neil Shearing, chief group economist at Capital Economics.

There is important variation within the causes, in addition to the forecasts, among the many three major economic blocs.

Although total output in the US contracted, analysts tended to be more sanguine concerning the American economy’s prospects, noting that consumer spending was strong despite high inflation and that the labor market remained tight. The downturn through the first quarter was almost certainly the results of one-time measuring quirks.

Against this, China’s report of 4.8 growth percent in the primary quarter masks just how much that economy is affected by a slump in the actual estate industry, overinvestment and pandemic-related shutdowns.

As for Europe, it’s far more affected by the war in Ukraine.

Credit…James Hill for The Latest York Times

The common problem all of them face, though, is inflation.

“Growth world wide is evolving at different speeds,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist of EY-Parthenon, but “inflation is present almost all over the place in most sectors.”

Those divergent economic backdrops may cause governments and central banks to decide on different, and even conflicting, policies as countries attempt to slow inflation without tipping into recession.

In the US, the Federal Reserve is ready on raising rates of interest to bring down inflation, Mr. Daco said, while governments in Europe may find yourself funneling extra money to their residents to blunt the impact of rising energy prices. And China, he said, is caught in a bind: “They don’t need to let go of their Covid-zero policy, but they realize the drag on economic activity from that policy is very large.”

Although the present slate of risk aspects — just like the coronavirus and tensions between Russia and Ukraine — were all present when the yr began, the economic outlook then was much brighter. Restrictions related to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus were starting to ease in Europe and elsewhere, and there have been hopes that the movement of products and supplies world wide was about to select up.

But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine injected a jarring level of uncertainty and undermined economic confidence. The war and resulting sanctions imposed by the US, Europe and their allies have aggravated shortages of food, energy and crucially necessary minerals, disrupting trade and driving inflation to wince-inducing levels.

China’s economy expanded in the primary quarter but at a pace that was barely faster than the ultimate three months of last yr, underlining more trouble ahead. The federal government has responded to renewed outbreaks of Covid with severe lockdowns and mass quarantines, which have kept tens of millions of employees and consumers in several cities at home. Shanghai, the country’s biggest city, has been closed for greater than a month, while further shutdowns of companies and residential complexes were announced in Beijing on Friday.

Credit…Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Patrick P. Gelsinger, the chief executive of Intel, the Silicon Valley giant, cited the Shanghai lockdown and the war in Ukraine in warning on Friday that the shortage of computer chips that has bedeviled technology, automotive and electronics firms worldwide for greater than a yr will proceed “until at the very least 2024.” He made his remarks on a call with industry analysts.

Risks, especially those related to a possible energy embargo and other disruptions brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have intensified. This week, Russia cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. At the identical time, the European Union has been inching closer to an agreement to stop the flow of Russian oil.

The impact of an abrupt halt in gas and oil supplies has generated sharp debate. In Germany, which has the biggest economy in Europe, the central bank recently warned that a gas embargo would cause the country’s economic output to say no as much as 5 percent this yr.

Some economists have offered more optimistic estimates, but Melanie Debono, senior Europe economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a gas embargo would almost definitely throw Germany into recession and doubtless “drag the remaining of Europe down with it.”

In the course of the first three months of this yr, Germany’s gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — grew 0.2 percent.

“The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine have had a growing impact on the short-term economic development since late February,” the Federal Statistics Office in Germany said on Friday.

Credit…Lena Mucha for The Latest York Times

Across the eurozone, growth varied. The economy in Spain performed barely higher than other European countries’, growing 0.3 percent over the identical period. Still, the development was much smaller than the two.2 percent recorded within the last quarter of 2021.

In France, where Covid restrictions remained in place for much of the primary quarter, growth got here to a dead stop. In Italy, G.D.P. fell 0.2 percent from the previous three months.

“Clearly the image for the primary quarter is one among pretty weak growth,” said Ángel Talavera, head of European economics at Oxford Economics. “Consumer confidence has tanked all over the place pretty sharply,” he noted, adding that household spending weakened as wages didn’t keep pace with inflation.

Average growth among the many 27 countries that make up the European Union was 0.4 percent in the primary three months of 2022, stated Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, twice the figure reported for the eurozone.

Inflation has been a persistent thorn, rising to an annual rate of seven.5 percent across the eurozone in April from 7.4 percent in March, Eurostat said.

Food and other prices rose sharply. Although energy prices fell 3.7 percent this month, they’re still greater than a 3rd higher than last yr. “There may be a squeeze in real incomes for households,” Ms. Debono of Pantheon said.

Rising inflation could test the American economy’s resilience as well. In the course of the first quarter of this yr, consumer prices rose at a 7 percent annual rate, the fastest in 4 a long time. Taking inflation under consideration, after-tax incomes dropped for the fourth quarter in a row.

Credit…Roberto Salomone for The Latest York Times

Even before this latest round of measurements, intense uncertainty had dimmed forecasts. Last week, the International Monetary Fund revised its estimate of world growth to three.6 percent from the 4.4 percent it predicted in January. Its estimate for the eurozone declined 1.1 points to 2.9 percent for the yr.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “could have severe economic consequences for Europe, having struck when the recovery from the pandemic was still incomplete,” the I.M.F. said in its most up-to-date regional outlook. “The war has led to large increases in commodity prices and compounded supply-side disruptions, which is able to further fuel inflation and cut into households’ incomes and firms’ profits.”

The outlook for the remaining of the yr may darken further.

“Overall, 2022 goes to be a yr where growth goes to be significantly weaker than most analysts expect,” said Mr. Shearing of Capital Economics.

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