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Global carbon emissions show no sign of decrease needed to limit warming to 1.5°C in 2022

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There was no sign of decrease in global carbon dioxide emissions this yr, in line with a recent report.

We’re currently releasing record levels of the greenhouse gas, which should be curbed urgently if we’re to limit warming to 2.7°F (1.5°C).

This limit was considered one of the goals of the Paris Agreement and, if our current emissions levels persist, there may be a 50 per cent likelihood it is going to be exceeded in nine years. 

These stark warnings are available in the annual Global Carbon Budget report, prepared by over 100 international scientists.

It provides an in-depth summary of the quantity of carbon dioxide emitted consequently of human activities, and predicts the totals for the top of the yr.

‘This yr we see yet one more rise in global fossil CO2 emissions, when we want a rapid decline,’ said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, from the University of Exeter, who led the study.

We’re currently releasing record levels of carbon dioxide emissions, which should be curbed urgently if we’re to limit warming to 2.7°F (1.5°C) over pre-industrial temperatures

Land use changes, like deforestation, are projected to be responsible for 3.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide this year.  Pictured: Deforested plot of the Amazon rainforest

Land use changes, like deforestation, are projected to be answerable for 3.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide this yr.  Pictured: Deforested plot of the Amazon rainforest

HOW MUCH CARBON DIOXIDE WILL THE WORLD EMIT THIS YEAR? 

The report projects that total global carbon dioxide emissions might be 40.6 billion tonnes by the top of 2022.

Nearly all of this yr’s total comes from fossil fuel emissions, that may release 36.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide alone.

Land use changes, like deforestation, are projected to be answerable for 3.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. 

All this might end in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reaching a mean of 417.2 parts per million this yr – greater than 50 per cent above pre-industrial levels. 

‘There are some positive signs, but leaders meeting at COP27 may have to take meaningful motion if we’re to have any likelihood of limiting global warming near 2.7F (1.5°C). 

‘The Global Carbon Budget numbers monitor the progress on climate motion and immediately we will not be seeing the motion required.’

The report, published today in Earth System Science Data, projects that total global carbon dioxide emissions might be 40.6 billion tonnes by the top of 2022.

That is is near the 40.9 billion tonnes released in 2019 – the best annual total ever recorded.

Nearly all of this yr’s total comes from fossil fuel emissions, that may release 36.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide alone, which is a one per cent increase on 2021.

Oil is projected to be the most important contributor to total emissions growth, mostly attributable to the return of international aviation following the COVID-19 restrictions.

Emissions in China and the EU are expected to fall by 0.9 and 0.8 per cent respectively, but they may increase in India and the USA by 6 and 1.5 per cent.

The Global Carbon Budget team predict an emissions increase of 1.5 per cent for the remainder of the world combined.

Land use changes, like deforestation, are projected to be answerable for 3.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide this yr.

Indonesia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo contribute 58 per cent of land use emissions globally.

All this might end in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reaching a mean of 417.2 parts per million this yr – greater than 50 per cent above pre-industrial levels. 

The majority of this year's emissions total comes from fossil fuel emissions, like burning oil and coal, that will release 36.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide alone

Nearly all of this yr’s emissions total comes from fossil fuel emissions, like burning oil and coal, that may release 36.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide alone

The Global Carbon Budget report also looks at the degrees of carbon stored in sinks, just like the sea and vegetation, which absorb greater than they release.

Ocean and land carbon sinks are absorbing and storing increasing amounts, and currently hold around half of world carbon dioxide emissions.

Nonetheless, sink growth has been reduced over the past decade by an estimated 4 per cent within the ocean and 17 per cent on land attributable to climate change.

For instance, changes in rainfall and temperature can negatively affect the health of vegetation, and thus how much carbon it may possibly store.

Moreover, because the ocean warms it becomes less efficient in holding carbon dioxide.

It is not all bad news, because the report does state the the long-term rate of accelerating fossil emissions has slowed.

While the height average annual rise was three per cent throughout the 2000s, it was only about 0.5 per cent over the past decade.

The research team welcomed this deceleration, but said it was ‘removed from the emissions decrease we want’.

Oil is projected to be the largest contributor to total emissions growth, mostly due to the return of international aviation following the COVID-19 restrictions

Oil is projected to be the most important contributor to total emissions growth, mostly attributable to the return of international aviation following the COVID-19 restrictions

Humanity is ‘unequivocally facing a climate emergency’, report warns 

With carbon dioxide levels at their highest on record and temperatures continuing to rise, Earth has officially reached ‘Code Red’, a recent report has warned.

Within the ‘World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022′ report, researchers warn that humanity is ‘unequivocally facing a climate emergency’.

They analysed 35 planetary vital signs which might be used to trace climate change, including tree loss from fires and extreme heat events, and located that 16 of those signs are at record extreme.

Read more here

We will now only emit an additional 380 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide to offer us a 50 per cent likelihood of limiting global warming to 2.7F (1.5°C).

If emissions remain at the degrees they’re currently at, we are going to exceed this in only nine years time.

Emitting a maximum of 1,230 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide will give us a 50 per cent likelihood of limiting global warming to three.6F (2°C).

A decrease of about 1.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide is now required each yr to achieve zero emissions by 2050.

That is the equivalent of the observed emissions fall in 2020 consequently of the COVID-19 lockdowns all over the world.

Professor Corinne Le Quéré, from the University of East Anglia, said: ‘Our findings reveal turbulence in emissions patterns this yr resulting from the pandemic and global energy crises.

‘If governments respond by turbo charging clean energy investments and planting, not cutting, trees, global emissions could rapidly begin to fall.

‘We’re at a turning point and must not allow world events to distract us from the urgent and sustained have to cut our emissions to stabilise the worldwide climate and reduce cascading risks.’

Dr Robin Lamboll, a Research Associate in Climate Science and Policy from Imperial College London, added: ‘This thorough work combines many lines of evidence to evaluate the overall carbon we’re releasing. 

‘The story it shows is grim. For emissions to proceed rising during this crunch in the value of oil and gas is incredibly disappointing – it must have been a reminder of the fragility of the fossil-fuelled economy. 

‘The report should remind negotiators at COP27 that their actions to this point have been inadequate.’

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