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Heat vs. Spurs predictions, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA picks, Dec. 10 best bets from proven model


The Miami Heat host the San Antonio Spurs in a cross-conference game on Saturday. The Heat are 12-14 overall and 9-5 at home this season, with the Spurs entering at 7-18 overall and 3-8 in road games. Jakob Poeltl (knee), Jeremy Sochan (quad), Blake Wesley (knee), and Keita Bates-Diop (foot) are out for the Spurs, with Devin Vassell (knee) listed as questionable. Gabe Vincent (knee) and Omer Yurtseven (ankle) are out for the Heat, with Dewayne Dedmon listed as questionable. Jimmy Butler (knee) is listed as probable.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 12-point home favorite for this 5 p.m. ET tip. The full variety of points Vegas thinks will probably be scored, or the over/under, is 223.5 in the most recent Spurs vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Spurs picks, you’ll want to to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a shocking 111-70 roll on all top-rated NBA picks that dates back to last season, returning greater than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Spurs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You may head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Listed below are several NBA odds and betting lines and trends for Spurs vs. Heat:

  • Spurs vs. Heat spread: Heat -12
  • Spurs vs. Heat over/under: 223.5 points
  • Spurs vs. Heat money line: Heat -700, Spurs +500
  • SAS: The Spurs are 4-7 against the spread in road games
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-10-1 against the spread in home games
  • Spurs vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs

Why the Spurs can cover

San Antonio is struggling overall, however the Spurs do have sound fundamentals on offense. The Spurs are No. 4 within the NBA in assists, averaging 27.7 helpers per game. San Antonio can also be in the highest three in assist percentage, producing an assist on 66.0% of field goals. The Spurs are in the highest 10 of the league in each offensive rebound rate (29.3%) and second-chance points (15.2 per game), and San Antonio generates 14.8 fast-break points per game. 

San Antonio is in the highest eight in points within the paint (52.9 per game), and the Spurs are also facing a Miami team that’s just No. 25 within the NBA in offensive efficiency with 109.5 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are No. 6 within the league in free throw prevention, giving up only 21.5 attempts per game.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s offense is not acting at its peak thus far this season, however the Heat are No. 2 within the NBA in free throw accuracy at 83.9%. Miami can also be in the highest eight of the NBA in ball security, committing only 14.1 turnovers per game, and the Heat are facing a porous Spurs defense. San Antonio is last within the league in allowing 118.2 points per 100 possessions, and the Spurs are also giving up 27.8 assists per game, most within the NBA. 

Opponents are shooting 50.6% from the sphere and 39.7% from 3-point range against the Spurs, and Miami is the superior defensive team. The Heat lead the NBA in stopping points within the paint and free throw attempts, and Miami is allowing nearly seven points fewer per 100 possessions than San Antonio. The Heat are also adept at creating havoc, producing 16.0 turnovers and seven.8 steals per game.

The way to make Spurs vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the purpose total, projecting 236 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You may only see the model’s NBA picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread that you must jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and discover.  

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