The town’s hotel industry didn’t roll out the welcome mat for a sunny forecast from CBRE which claimed that pandemic-battered inns are doing just high-quality.
Hotel Association of Latest York City president and CEO Vijay Dandapani threw shade on the true estate company’s rosy forecast as his organization lobbies for an enormous cut in the town’s hotel occupancy tax from 5.875 percent to 2.875 — in addition to for reduced property taxes.
Lawmakers are more likely to be less receptive to the pitch if hotels are in higher shape that recent gloomy reports have suggested. But as in most data comparisons, there’s some truth to each perspectives.
Dandapani said CBRE’s survey, which The Post reported on Tuesday, was off base in predicting a return to pre-pandemic occupancy and revenue by 2024.
“We’re cheerleaders for the town, but there’s a spot between expectations and hope,” Dandapani said.
The optimistic prediction was written by Dan Hanrahan, CBRE senior vice-president of Hotels Advisory for the northeast. Dandapani said that Hanrahan’s forecast that revPAR — or revenue per available room, a key industry metric — would “leapfrog back to 2019 numbers” this yr was “impossible.”
The Hotel Association’s own data for the primary five months of 2022 show average revPAR for this yr, still well below 2019 — $155 compared with $184 before the virus struck.Annie Wermiel/NY Post
If it does, “We will all buy a drink at Christmas,” Dandapani deadpanned.
CBRE based its cheery forecast on data from this yr’s first quarter, which showed upticks in occupancy levels, room rates and revPAR.
The Hotel Association’s own data for the primary five months of 2022 show average revPAR for this yr, although rising on average from 2021 lows, still well below 2019 — $155 compared with $184 before the virus struck.
“With the intention to catch up, revPAR would should considerably exceed the present $155 for the remainder of the yr. Crossing the chasm will not be inconceivable, but it surely is unlikely,” Dandapani said.
Furthermore, he said that revPar in 2019 and in 2022 have different meanings, on condition that the town’s hotel rooms shrunk from about 122,000 in 2019 to around 100,000 today.
Luxury-class inns akin to the Baccarat, the St. Regis, Pierre and the 4 Seasons downtown are outperforming cheaper properties, he said.
Luxury-class inns like Pierre (above) are outperforming cheaper properties, Dandapani said.Angel Chevrestt
But many hotels in any respect price points remain closed — from top-tier 4 Seasons on East 57th Street, to the mid-market Marriott Eastside on Lexington Avenue, to budget lodgings in Chelsea and the Far West Side.
“Most elected officials are pushing for changing closed hotels to housing,” Dandapani said. “What meaning is, there are a lot of closed hotels” — and the losses haven’t been fully offset by recent openings akin to the Hard Rock and Riu hotels near Times Square.
Other troubling “headwinds” include the sluggish return of international business travel and the near-complete loss of holiday makers from China and Brazil.
But Dandapani acknowledged not less than one promising vital sign. Asked how much guests were paying per room today compared with pre-pandemic days, he said last week’s average cost across all hotel classes was $263 — “inside five percent, inside striking distance, of 2019,” he said.