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How Russia’s War on Ukraine Is Worsening Global Starvation

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ISTANBUL — Hulking ships carrying Ukrainian wheat and other grains are backed up along the Bosporus here in Istanbul as they await inspections before moving on to ports all over the world.

The variety of ships sailing through this narrow strait, which connects Black Sea ports to wider waters, plummeted when Russia invaded Ukraine 10 months ago and imposed a naval blockade. Under diplomatic pressure, Moscow has begun allowing some vessels to pass, however it continues to limit most shipments from Ukraine, which along with Russia once exported 1 / 4 of the world’s wheat.

And on the few Ukrainian ports which are operational, Russia’s missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid periodically cripple the grain terminals where wheat and corn are loaded onto ships.

A permanent global food crisis has turn into one in every of the farthest-reaching consequences of Russia’s war, contributing to widespread starvation, poverty and premature deaths.

The USA and allies are struggling to scale back the damage. American officials are organizing efforts to assist Ukrainian farmers get food out of their country through rail and road networks that hook up with Eastern Europe and on barges traveling up the Danube River.

But as deep winter sets in and Russia presses assaults on Ukraine’s infrastructure, the crisis is worsening. Food shortages are already being exacerbated by a drought within the Horn of Africa and unusually harsh weather in other parts of the world.

The United Nations World Food Program estimates that greater than 345 million people are affected by or prone to acute food insecurity, greater than double the number from 2019.

“We’re dealing now with a large food insecurity crisis,” Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, said last month at a summit with African leaders in Washington. “It’s the product of quite a lot of things, as everyone knows,” he said, “including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”

The food shortages and high prices are causing intense pain across Africa, Asia and the Americas. U.S. officials are especially frightened about Afghanistan and Yemen, which have been ravaged by war. Egypt, Lebanon and other big food-importing nations are finding it difficult to pay their debts and other expenses because costs have surged. Even in wealthy countries like america and Britain, soaring inflation driven partially by the war’s disruptions has left poorer people without enough to eat.

“By attacking Ukraine, the breadbasket of the world, Putin is attacking the world’s poor, spiking global hunger when individuals are already getting ready to famine,” said Samantha Power, the administrator of america Agency for International Development, or USAID.

Ukrainians are likening the events to the Holodomor, when Joseph Stalin engineered a famine in Soviet-ruled Ukraine 90 years ago that killed thousands and thousands.

Mr. Blinken announced on Dec. 20 that the U.S. government would begin granting blanket exceptions to its economic sanctions programs worldwide to be sure that food aid and other assistance kept flowing. The motion is meant to be sure that firms and organizations don’t withhold assistance for fear of running afoul of U.S. sanctions.

State Department officials said it was probably the most significant change to U.S. sanctions policy in years. The United Nations Security Council adopted the same resolution on sanctions last month.

But Russia’s intentional disruption of world food supplies poses a completely different problem.

Moscow has restricted its own exports, increasing costs elsewhere. Most vital, it has stopped sales of fertilizer, needed by the world’s farmers. Before the war, Russia was the most important exporter of fertilizer.

Its hostilities in Ukraine have also had a serious impact. From March to November, Ukraine exported a median of three.5 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds monthly, a steep drop from the five million to seven million metric tons monthly it exported before the war began in February, based on data from the country’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.

That number could be even lower if not for an agreement forged in July by the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, called the Black Sea Grain Initiative, by which Russia agreed to permit exports from three Ukrainian seaports.

Russia continues to dam seven of the 13 ports utilized by Ukraine. (Ukraine has 18 ports, but five are in Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014.) Besides the three on the Black Sea, three on the Danube are operational.

The initial deal was just for 4 months but was prolonged in November for one more 4 months. When Russia threatened to depart it in October, global food prices surged five to 6 percent, said Isobel Coleman, a deputy administrator at USAID.

“The consequences of this war are hugely, hugely disruptive,” she said. “Putin is pushing thousands and thousands of individuals into poverty.”

While increases in the value of food this past yr have been particularly sharp within the Middle East, North Africa and South America, no region has been immune.

“You’re taking a look at price increases of all the things from 60 percent within the U.S. to 1900 percent in Sudan,” said Sara Menker, the chief executive of Gro Intelligence, a platform for climate and agriculture data that tracks food prices.

Before the war, food prices had already climbed to their highest levels in over a decade due to pandemic disruptions in the provision chain and pervasive drought.

The USA, Brazil and Argentina, key grain producers for the world, have experienced three consecutive years of drought. The extent of the Mississippi River fell a lot that the barges that carry American grain to ports were temporarily grounded.

The weakening of many foreign currency echange against the U.S. dollar has also forced some countries to purchase less food on the international market than in years past.

“There have been quite a lot of structural issues, after which the war just made it that much worse,” Ms. Menker said.

U.S. officials say the Russian military has deliberately targeted grain storage facilities in Ukraine, a possible war crime, and has destroyed wheat processing plants.

Many farmers in Ukraine have gone to war or fled their land, and the infrastructure that processed and carried wheat and sunflower oil to foreign markets has broken down.

At a farm 190 miles south of Kyiv, 40 of the 350 employees have enlisted in the military. And the farm is fighting other shortages. Kees Huizinga, the Dutch co-owner, said Russia’s attacks on the energy grid have led to the shutdown of a plant that gives his farm and others with nitrogen fertilizer.

Other fertilizer plants in Europe were forced to shut down or slow production last yr as natural gas prices soared, a results of the war. Natural gas is critical for fertilizer production.

“So this yr’s harvest has already been reduced,” Mr. Huizinga said in November. “And if Russians proceed like this, next yr’s harvest might even be worse.”

He added that transportation costs have risen sharply for farmers in Ukraine.

Before the war, farmers shipped out 95 percent of the country’s wheat and grain exports through the Black Sea. Mr. Huizinga’s farm paid $23 to $24 per ton to move its products to ports and onto ships. Now, the fee has greater than doubled, he said. And an alternate route — by truck to Romania — costs $85 per ton.

Mr. Huizinga said Russia’s compromise on Black Sea shipments has helped, but he suspects Moscow is hobbling operations by slowing inspections.

Under the arrangement, each vessel leaving one in every of three Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea must be inspected by joint teams of Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and United Nations employees once the ship reaches Istanbul.

The teams search for any unauthorized cargo or crew members, and vessels heading to Ukraine have to be empty of cargo, said Ismini Palla, a spokeswoman for the U.N. office overseeing this system.

U.N. data shows that the speed of inspections has dropped in recent weeks. The parties agreed to deploy three teams every day, Ms. Palla said, adding that the United Nations has requested more.

“We hope that it will change soon, in order that the Ukrainian ports can operate again at higher capability,” she said. “Ukrainian exports remain an important element in combating global food insecurity.”

Ms. Palla said the parties’ decision in November to increase the agreement contributed to a 2.8 percent drop in global wheat prices.

During the last six months, food prices have retreated from highs reached this spring, based on an index compiled by the United Nations. But they continue to be much higher than in previous years.

An uncertainty for farmers this winter is the soaring price of fertilizer, one in every of their biggest costs.

Farmers have passed on the upper cost by increasing the value of food products. And lots of farmers are using less fertilizer of their fields. That can end in lower crop yields in the approaching seasons, pushing food prices higher.

Subsistence farms, which produce nearly a 3rd of the world’s food, are being hit even harder, Ms. Coleman said.

In a communiqué issued on the close of their meeting in Bali, Indonesia, in November, leaders of the Group of 20 nations said they were deeply concerned by the challenges to global food security and pledged to support the international efforts to maintain food supply chains functioning.

“We want to strengthen trade cooperation, not weaken it,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization, said on the summit.

The U.S. government spends about $2 billion per yr on global food security, and it began a program called Feed the Future after the last big food crisis, in 2010, that now encompasses 20 countries.

For the reason that start of the Ukraine war, america has provided greater than $11 billion to handle the food crisis. That features a $100 million program called AGRI-Ukraine, which has helped about 13,000 farmers in Ukraine — 27 percent of the overall — gain access to financing, technology, transportation, seeds, fertilizer, bags and mobile storage units, Ms. Coleman said.

The efforts could help rebuild the country while alleviating the worldwide food crisis — one-fifth of Ukraine’s economy is within the agriculture sector, and a fifth of the country’s labor force is connected to it.

“It’s hugely necessary for Ukraine’s economy,” she said, “and for Ukraine’s economic survival.”

Edward Wong reported from Istanbul and Washington, and Ana Swanson from Washington.

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