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Jacob DeGrom vs. Max Fried

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Our MLB betting expert offers his best-betting picks and predictions for Thursday’s matchup between the Recent York Mets and Atlanta Braves, scheduled to start at 7:20 p.m. ET.

A 9-7 victory on Wednesday night bought the Recent York Mets some much-needed respiration room within the race against the Atlanta Braves. The win vaulted the Mets to a 4.5-game lead over the Braves within the NL East, they usually’ll have a likelihood to increase it even further with Jacob deGrom on the mound at Truist Park within the series finale on Thursday night. 

Most nights, when deGrom takes the hill, he does in order a big favorite. But that won’t be the case on this contest, because the Mets are currently sitting as -126 favorites against Max Fried and the Braves.

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Mets vs. Braves odds

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread: NYM -1.5 (+140) vs. ATL +1.5 (-165)

Moneyline: NYM (-135) vs. ATL (+115)

Total: Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120)

Jacob deGromJacob deGromGetty Images

Mets vs. Braves prediction

The indisputable fact that the sport is actually a coin flip speaks volumes about how good Fried has been for the Braves this season. The 28-year-old owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a .235 batting average against in 138.1 innings of labor in 2022. 

While deGrom relies on power and precision to excel, Fried’s pitching approach is barely different. He won’t rack up a crazy amount of punchouts but as an alternative relies on his ability to hit his spots and keep hitters off balance to induce weak contact and ground balls — he ranks ninth within the MLB in ground ball rate and third in hard-hit percentage.

Maintaining with Jacob deGrom is an unenviable task, but Fried’s numbers and his ability to maintain the basepaths clear give him nearly as good a likelihood as any pitcher. 

As for deGrom, he’s shown incredibly well in his three starts this season. The 2-time Cy Young Award winner has logged a 1.62 ERA, 0.42 WHIP and has struck out an absurd 50% of the batters he’s faced in his 16.2 innings of labor to this point. 

The Braves did have some modest success against deGrom by plating two runs against him in 5.2 innings, but those scores got here on one hit, and the 34-year-old racked up 12 strikeouts despite only facing 19 batters. 

Betting on Sports?

Max FriedMax Fried pitches against the MetsGetty Images

As you’d expect, the general public is everywhere in the Under 7 on this matchup. Fried and deGrom is about nearly as good a pitching matchup as you may get within the MLB, and in such a very important game, bettors predict a good contest between two aces. In response to Motion Network’s market data, 80% of the bets on the whole on this game have are available on the under, which currently sits at 7 (-108) at FanDuel.

What could give bettors some pause about keeping it easy and flocking to the Under is that these bullpens have been busy over the past two nights, and it will be a surprise if deGrom is allowed to work that deep into the competition, regardless of how well he’s throwing. 

Reasonably than worry concerning the bullpens, it may make more sense to isolate the starting pitching matchup and back the F5 Under at 3.5.

Mets vs. Braves MLB pick today

The Bet: F5 Under 3.5 (-114, FanDuel)

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