Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Commanders -4.5 | Total: 42
Taylor Heinicke has won 4 of his five starts for the Commanders this season, and Coach Ron Rivera officially named him the starter for the remainder of the season. After upsetting the Eagles in Week 10, Heinicke and the Commanders became betting darlings: This week they attracted 66 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the early money. But even at 6-5, Washington is at the underside of the N.F.C. East and can have to claw its way through the remainder of the schedule in the event that they’re going to make the postseason.
For his or her part, the Falcons are a half-game behind the Buccaneers within the N.F.C. South and wish to win the division to make it to the postseason. Neither of those offenses has been particularly impressive. The Commanders have averaged 4.5 yards per play and 165 passing yards per game over their last three games; the Falcons are relying heavily on running back Cordarrelle Patterson with tight end Kyle Pitts out with a medial collateral ligament injury. These teams match up well, so the points on the spread are worthwhile. Pick: Falcons +4.5
Chicago Bears (3-8) at Jets (6-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Jets -4.5 | Total: 39.5
The Jets had 2 yards of offense — a median of two.7 inches per play — within the second half of a nasty loss to the Patriots last week in Foxborough, Mass. Quite a lot of the blame fell on the second-year quarterback Zach Wilson, who was benched in favor of Mike White on Wednesday.
Despite their record and never having the ability to generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Bears have a much better outlook than the Jets. Justin Fields has been impressive keeping games close against playoff contenders, though he hurt his left shoulder and was listed as daily. He’s a difference-maker and the backup Trevor Siemian isn’t. If Fields is out, the Jets’ defense will make quick work of chopping through the Bears’ terrible offensive line. Pick: Jets -4.5
Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Eagles -7 | Total: 46.5
The Eagles’ defensive position has wobbled against the run, an issue the team hoped to plug by acquiring the services of the veteran tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh ahead of Week 11. They’ll get tested against the Packers and Aaron Jones, a top-10 back who has 778 total yards and averages 5.4 yards per carry. Every week is a “must-win game” for the Packers, who must go on a major run to have a shot at a wild-card berth. Pick: Eagles -7