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NFL 2022 MVP odds: Josh Allen’s the favourite, but who can beat him out?

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the favourite to win the NFL MVP award this season, in response to BetMGM. That’s for good reason, says Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs quarterback and 2018 MVP who BetMGM has slotted because the No. 2 favorite.

“He gets those rushing yards, man,” Mahomes said before The Match golf competition in Las Vegas in early June through which he teamed up with Allen but lost the 12-hole event to the duo of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

“That dude is over there jumping over and hurdling people, getting those highlights,” Mahomes said, adding that he thinks Allen will earn the hardware “if Aaron gives it up sooner or later and never just keep winning it.”

Rodgers won his fourth MVP last season and second consecutive, but he and the Packers lost No. 1 receiver Davante Adams in a trade to the Raiders. Which does make it Allen’s award to lose. The Bills are arguably the very best team within the league, and Allen, 26, is coming off two torrid playoff games through which he threw 14 incomplete passes (out of 62) and nine touchdowns.

That’s why Allen is the favourite at 7 to 1, in response to BetMGM. Is that a very good bet? Let’s have a look at all different categories of players and narrow the sector before we pick one winner and one longshot.

There will probably be no mention of defensive players. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt had 22 1/2 sacks — greater than your entire Falcons team — last season and won the Defensive Player of the Yr award but didn’t receive any MVP votes.

The highest guns

PlayerTeamOdds

Bills

7-1

Chiefs

8-1

Buccaneers

8-1

Packers

9-1

Allen has overtaken Mahomes as the favourite during an offseason through which Mahomes lost receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins after which watched the remainder of the AFC West teams start stacking up talent. The Bills, meanwhile, are BetMGM’s favorites to win the Super Bowl and Allen is their best player — who might still be recuperating — and he has all his toys back plus a latest one in receiver Jamison Crowder. Allen did lose offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants’ head coaching job and the Bills need to run the ball more, but those aren’t really ok reasons to fade Allen. Or … are they?

Never bet against Brady. Right? But that doesn’t mean you bet on a 45-year-old guy (in August) who is perhaps a tiny bit sad that he just isn’t a player-owner for the Dolphins immediately. And he’s going to miss Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown as well. Rodgers won the award last season despite angering loads of individuals with all of his podcast appearances — and despite Brady having a greater 12 months statistically. If Rodgers pulls off one other 13 wins this season without Adams, he might make it three MVPs in a row. But that’s not happening. I clearly don’t think you possibly can replace guys like Hill and Adams in a single offseason.

So, moving on to the following round is … Allen.

The young guns

PlayerTeamOdds

Chargers

9-1

Bengals

12-1

Everybody loves Justin Herbert, and what’s not to like? He improved from 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns as a rookie to five,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in Yr 2, and the Chargers are higher this season. The AFC West is hard, but we are able to see bettors have moved Herbert from 14 to 1 to 9 to 1.

I like Joe Burrow higher, though. His stats weren’t as flashy as Herbert’s a 12 months after major, major, major knee surgery, but he threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdown passes and led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. Unlike Herbert, he has shown he can win big games, plus the Bengals finally addressed their offensive line this season.

Burrow’s 12 to 1 was the primary value bet that jumped out on this whole board, so he moves on to the ultimate round.

The opposite QBs

PlayerTeamOdds

Rams

14-1

Cowboys

14-1

Broncos

14-1

Ravens

20-1

Cardinals

20-1

Eagles

25-1

Raiders

25-1

Matthew Stafford had the season all quarterbacks stuck on losing teams dream of, going to Los Angeles and winning the Super Bowl. And he didn’t sniff an MVP vote. (Rodgers won with 39 votes, followed by Brady’s 10 and one for Rams receiver Cooper Kupp.)

A bet on Dak Prescott is a bet on Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, and that seems a bit of silly at this point. Plus, query Amari Cooper’s love for football all you wish but he’s pretty talented and Prescott will miss him.

Russell Wilson has been a well-liked bet (he opened at 30 to 1) along with his move to Denver, but Seattle sure seemed a bit of too excited to do away with its franchise quarterback. Wilson was never great at going through his progression of reads when he was young and healthy, and at 33, he just isn’t extending or making as many plays along with his legs anymore. Lamar Jackson won the MVP three years ago however the Ravens are going to run the ball an excessive amount of for him to place up big numbers. Kyler Murray is a fun fantasy player but is he really good? I don’t think the Cardinals know the reply to that one yet.

Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr are interesting because if the Eagles and Raiders win and make the playoffs, the quarterbacks will get the credit. (The identical is true in reverse, as well). Hurts and Carr each saw their teams add stud receivers in A.J. Brown and Adams, and the Eagles have the much easier schedule, so the selection on this group is Hurts at 25 to 1.

Quarterbacks have won the last nine MVP awards. Running backs are the one three non-QBs to have won the award since 2001, they usually get so little respect nowadays it’s sad.

Todd Gurley left body parts all around the field in carrying the Rams to 11 wins in 2017, and if he can’t win it for that season (2,093 combined yards rushing and receiving, 19 touchdowns), no running back ever will again. (Christian McCaffrey had higher numbers in 2019, however the Panthers were bad and he enjoyed loads of garbage time.)

Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor having the identical odds is a cute sign that you just are burning money on a random number. Ja’Marr Chase is great but Burrows throws him the ball so he can’t win MVP. Kupp fell 18 yards in need of setting an NFL record for yards receiving and got one vote last season. Do it again and perhaps he gets two votes.

For those who squint really, really hard, you might make a case for Saquon Barkley at those huge odds. He’s a highlight machine who’s finally healthy, in great shape and plays in an enormous media market that may crown him over Daniel Jones if the Giants win.

But … nobody on this category is winning MVP.

The longshots

PlayerTeamOdds

Browns

40-1

49ers

40-1

Vikings

50-1

Patriots

50-1

Colts

50-1

Jaguars

80-1

Browns

80-1

Deshaun Watson is the worst bet on the board, for the straightforward reason that he may get suspended and miss a bunch of games. (A disciplinary hearing for Watson began Tuesday with the NFL’s and NFL Players Association’s appointed disciplinary officer, Sue L. Robinson, as they choose a punishment for the 24 civil lawsuits filed by women accusing him of sexual misconduct and sexual assault during massage appointments.)

Trey Lance is the quarterback for a excellent 49ers team with a creative offensive mind in Kyle Shanahan, but 40 to 1 just aren’t ok odds for the sort of leap we’re talking about. Especially with Jimmy Garoppolo still hanging around for now.

No person likes Kirk Cousins, and seeing Mac Jones as greater than a really solid quarterback in a conservative offense is projecting quite a bit. The indisputable fact that Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield have the identical odds … I’m unsure which one I’m sadder for.

Which leaves us with Matt Ryan, my second-favorite pick on the entire board. More on him in a minute.

Burrow led the NFL with a 70.4 completion percentage and eight.9 yards per pass attempt despite being sacked a league-leading 51 times. And that was in his first 12 months back from ACL and MCL knee surgery. It’s hard to go against Allen, but there just isn’t loads of street cred in going with the chalk, plus you might make a case that Burrow has more upside, while the Bills may depend on their running game and their great defense, which added future Hall of Fame pass rusher Von Miller, much more.

So Burrow is the pick, and also you obviously need to hedge that with a longshot. Ryan is the selection over Hurts because he’s on a greater team that has been starved for good quarterback play since Andrew Luck retired in 2019. If the Colts finally recover from the hump, Ryan will probably be considered one of the most important stories within the league. And apparently he’s still got it.

“I at all times knew he was a terrific passer, but his accuracy is insane,” Colts coach Frank Reich told reporters eventually month’s minicamp.

Ryan, 37, said it’s been “rejuvenating” leaving the Falcons for the Colts — a team with a greater offensive line, higher receivers, higher running backs and higher coaches. Imagine that …

Ryan won the MVP award in 2016, and I believe that helps him with sportswriters who wish to prove they got something right once. They’re also big on validation, and I can see all of the headlines now about how Ryan was a deserving Hall of Famer all along however the 2022 season really put him excessive. (He definitely deserves it greater than Philip Rivers, but we digress.)

So, there you go. Burrow at 12-1 and Ryan at 50-1. Book ’em, Dano.

(Photo of Josh Allen: Denny Medley / USA Today)

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