Smith: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
With one week left in NFL offseason programs …
• That is something I’ve been meaning to write down for some time—a market correction could possibly be, and needs to be, coming for NFL head coaches.
I’ll pull out the instance of Sean Payton to supply context here. The Florida Sun-Sentinel reported Monday that the ex-Saints coach was offered a five-year, $100 million deal to take the Miami job earlier this 12 months. I’m told the offer itself was actually $100 million over 4 years. And before that, in Latest Orleans, my understanding is Payton was on a five-year deal price $80 million, when every part was added up.
So he walked away from $16 million per, and will’ve gotten $25 million per. Feels like rather a lot? But is it? Take a have a look at NFL economics, and also you may be lead in one other direction here. The league pulls down an estimated $18 billion per 12 months. There are 15 (!) quarterbacks making $25 million per or more, and one making double that. Aaron Donald, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Joey Bosa, Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown and Myles Garrett are there too. Roger Goodell makes $63.9 million per 12 months.
Still think Payton’s numbers there are out of whack?
Ultimately, most NFL people would inform you that the quarterback is a very powerful person on the football side of a team, with the top coach running second. So I’d argue the concept a extremely good or elite coach can be price closer to what a starting quarterback is price, with so lots of head coaches still under $10 million per 12 months, is pretty sensible, when you concentrate on how each team should slice up its pie of professional football’s fortune.
As I see it, the reckoning is coming. Payton has leverage because he’s already got money, and may have multiple suitors if and when he decides to return to the sideline. Sean McVay has leverage with the Rams because if he walks away, a TV network will likely give him a raise on what he’s already making. And if you ought to get a Ryan Day or a Lincoln Riley out of the faculty ranks down the road, you’ll need to beat the eight-figure annual numbers those guys are knocking down (Have a look at what Carolina did to lure Matt Rhule from Baylor).
Now, what I’m less sure on is how quickly the market correction comes—owners have been determined, up to now, to maintain the numbers manageable, and first-time head coaches are rarely ready to say no, even when a deals below market. But when a pair big names do deals, and even just throw their weight around a bit of? It could occur soon.
• So what’s the most important difference between Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson (who selected to not miss veteran minicamp), and D.K. Metcalf and Terry McLaurin (who decided to carry out)? Aside from Murray and Jackson, as former first-rounders, having made extra money (which should give them more financial flexibility to carry out)? Those two are quarterbacks, and the opposite two aren’t.
And which means a choice to carry out by Murray and Jackson affects everyone on offense—and absolutely would hurt the standard of labor the team is capable of get on this week. That’s to not say Metcalf and McLaurin aren’t vital to their teams. They’re. But it surely’s rather a lot easier to make imagine a receiver is on the market for install than it’s to simulate your starting quarterback running the show.
So, for now, I wouldn’t take the actions of those 4 this week meaning anybody player is more serious about getting paid than the subsequent guy.
• Speaking of Metcalf, it’s not less than interesting that, per Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, Geno Smith looks poised to get the primary snap of coaching camp. The actual fact is the Seahawks, and the league, know who Smith is as a player. He’s 31. This will probably be his ninth season, and his fourth in Seattle. If there’d been a revelation on Smith, it’d have happened by now. And that makes the incontrovertible fact that Drew Lock hasn’t passed him yet notable.
Now, Seattle, needless to say, checked out getting Lock as a priority within the Russell Wilson trade—GM John Schneider loved Lock coming out of Missouri in 2019, and Lock’s best tape got here from the top of his rookie 12 months, when he was running an offense very just like the one Shane Waldron runs for Carroll. That said, the Seahawks have never been shy about letting a young guy who flashes compete for enjoying time. Actually, all it took was a rookie minicamp for the team to get Wilson starter reps back in 2012.
So it’ll be interesting to see if things playing out this fashion through the spring will tempt Carroll or Schneider to take a re-examination at Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo this summer.
• It’ll be harder to get such a read on the Panthers coming out of their minicamp this week since, despite the fact that Sam Darnold has been there for a 12 months, each he and Matt Corral are starting anew with coordinator Ben McAdoo. Still, not less than internally, Carolina may have a greater idea of where they’re at after this week, with plans to satisfy on it thereafter to chart the course at quarterback—whether the image includes Mayfield or Garoppolo, or not.
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• One leftover from my talk with Matt Ryan last week—I did ask what, over his exhaustive tape study the last three months, stuck out in regards to the Colts to him in watching and learning about his latest team. He laughed, because he thought his answer was obvious.
“The run game,” he said. And he affirmed he saw some familiar things inside it, gleaned from having worked for five coordinators, and Dirk Koetter twice, over 14 years in Atlanta.
“The run game’s a bit of different than a few of what I did with Kyle Shanahan,” he said. “But there are occasions once we ran the ball with Mike Mularkey early on in my profession, or Dirk Koetter’s first time around, where there have been some similar-type schemes. It’s all stuff that I’ve done, it’s just how they coach it and the way they emphasize things which can be a bit of bit different.”
With that established, one thing Ryan does know is what an important run game can do for him, having had Michael Turner help ease his transition to the league early in his profession, and having rode Shanahan’s vaunted run game to the Super Bowl in 2016.
“Little doubt,” Ryan said. “I’m like, OK, let’s go. Obviously, you continue to need to go on the market and do it, you don’t just roll off the bed and run the ball the way in which they did. You gotta earn it, you gotta work at it. However the potential is there. And the video evidence is there. That’s a part of it, I realize it’s about being an entire football team. And balance to me is with the ability to run the ball when you ought to run the ball, and throw the ball when you ought to throw the ball, not making it in regards to the numbers, after which playing good defense.
“And all of those things excite me about this organization. I’m fired as much as be here.”
Kareem Elgazzar/USA Today Network
• Jerick McKinnon’s a greater story than he’s made out to be. A converted college quarterback who became a jack-of-all-trades in Minnesota, he played well to earn a free-agent payday in San Francisco, then blew out his ACL in consecutive years, missed every game of 2018 and ’19, and has come back to carve out a spot for himself with the Chiefs.
McKinnon isn’t a superstar, and never really was one. But he needed to earn his way back in Kansas City last 12 months on special teams, eventually getting touches on offense, after which became a major piece for the Chiefs within the playoffs. He’s still fun to observe, and it’ll be interesting to see what Andy Reid does with him after getting handle on learn how to deploy him in 2021.
No matter how that plays out, though, it’s good to see McKinnon back on the market.
• One nugget I gathered coming out of last week’s minicamps—latest Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have been pleasantly surprised with the depth the team has at numerous positions. One is tailback, where the blokes in charge imagine they’ve got a pair real talents beyond mainstays Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. (I’ve heard second-year speedster Kene Nwangwu and fifth-round pick Ty Chandler are two to observe).
This, in fact, speaks well of the job the old regime did constructing the roster up. And where we’ve written just a few times the previous couple of weeks that the Raiders’ latest guys felt like there was plenty to construct on with what they inherited in Vegas, the identical applies for O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah within the Twin Cities.
• It’s good to see Trey Lance will probably be getting extra work in—and the hope can be that he could make the identical type of leap between spring camps and training camp that he did last 12 months, when he spent the team’s 40-day summer break working in Atlanta, North Dakota and Orange County to try to speed up his development.
Work ethic, drive and character, to make certain, were never an issue with Lance. We’ll see if, come summer, the Niners are a more natural thrower than they saw last 12 months.
• The responses to my tweet on Derrick Mason on Monday were interesting—some people couldn’t imagine he’d be considered a greater receiver than A.J. Brown. And I suppose I’d just exit the argument by saying that while Brown has a ton of potential, he’s got a ways to go to have the type of profession Mason had.
Mason was absolutely that good, and this whole thing feels to a bit of bit like people arguing Randy Moss was higher than Jerry Rice (he absolutely wasn’t), simply because Rice wasn’t as physically imposing as Moss was. Which, in fact, is being an old man and telling you where to stay your measureables and your highlight reels. Now, should you’ll excuse me, it’s time for my nap.
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