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NFL notable bets – Bills dominating early Super Bowl futures


Bills Mafia has been busy this offseason.

Buffalo is the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl at sportsbooks and has attracted more interest from bettors than another team by a large margin.

The Bills have garnered roughly double the betting interest of another team in the percentages to win the Super Bowl at multiple sportsbooks — each when it comes to the variety of bets and the amount of cash wagered. At DraftKings, nearly one out of each five Super Bowl bets has been on Buffalo. The Bills have attracted 2.5 times more bets than the second-most popular team, the Denver Broncos.

On Jan. 31, Caesars Sportsbook installed the Kansas City Chiefs because the favorites to win Super Bowl LVII at 13-2. The Bills were next at 7-1, but quickly moved past the Chiefs into the role of favorites and now sit at 13-2. There was thrice as much money wagered on the Bills as in comparison with the Chiefs at Caesars.

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the return of Tom Brady from his 40-day retirement, are the second favorites at most sportsbooks. The Bucs’ Super Bowl odds went from 14-1 to 28-1 when Brady retired in early February and have since improved to 15-2 at Caesars upon his return. But even the return of the GOAT is not any match for Bills Mafia on the betting windows. Buffalo has attracted thrice as many Super Bowl bets because the Buccaneers at DraftKings.

The NFL season kicks off on Sept. 8 with the Bills traveling to face the defending champion Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are one-point favorites. While we count down the times, here’s a have a look at the early betting motion on the NFL, starting with five bets that will cause you to pause.

Most bets to win the Super Bowl

Current odds via Caesars Sportsbook

  1. Buffalo Bills 13-2

  2. Cincinnati Bengals 22-1

  3. Las Vegas Raiders 40-1

Fewest bets to win the Super Bowl

  1. Houston Texans 250-1

  2. Jacksonville Jaguars 125-1

  3. Seattle Seahawks 125-1

Least amount of cash bet to win the Super Bowl

  1. Houston Texans 250-1

  2. Jacksonville Jaguars 250-1

  3. Carolina Panthers 100-1

TeamOpening odds Jan. 31Current odds June 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers14-115-2
Cincinnati Bengals22-112-1
Kansas City Chiefs13-210-1
Tennessee Titans18-130-1
Recent England Patriots22-140-1
Los Angeles Chargers22-116-1
Seattle Seahawks40-1125-1
Cleveland Browns40-120-1
Atlanta Falcons60-1200-1

Notable Bets

  • On March 16, a bettor in Nevada placed a $5,000 bet on the Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl at 150-1 odds with Caesars Sportsbook. Five days later, the Falcons traded quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts.

  • On Jan. 31, the day Caesars opened its odds to win Super Bowl LVII, a bettor in Recent York put $5,000 on the Recent York Jets to win all of it at 200-1 odds.

  • On May 25, a bettor at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas placed a $5,000 bet on the Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl at 125-1 odds.

  • A bettor with DraftKings placed a $501 bet on the Chicago Bears to beat the Chiefs within the Super Bowl at 800-1 odds.

  • On Feb. 15, not long after Caesars Sportsbook posted opening odds to win next season’s regular-season MVP, a bettor in Nevada placed a $1,000 bet on Bears quarterback Justin Fields to win the award at 150-1 odds.

Season-win total motion

  • Betting support for the Eagles has been showing up at sportsbook PointsBet, where Philadelphia’s season-win total has grown from 8.5 to 9.5. At 8.5, 98% of the bets and 99% of the cash wagered was on the over, including eight four-figure bets. The over motion on the Eagles hasn’t slowed since PointsBet bumped up the number a full win to 9.5: 92% of the bets and 90% of the cash wagered are on over 9.5.

Hottest season-win total by variety of wagers (via DraftKings)

  1. Recent York Jets over 5.5

  2. Pittsburgh Steelers over 7.5

  3. Recent York Jets under 5.5

Hottest season-win total by amount wagered

  1. Recent York Jets over 5.5

  2. Recent Orleans Saints over 8

  3. Philadelphia Eagles over 9.5

  • One of the popular season-win total bets on the SuperBook has been 49ers under 10 (+110). “A team that is had a confusing offseason in lots of ways,” John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, said. “Are they really going to go to Trey Lance, once they were one quarter away from the Super Bowl with [Jimmy] Garoppolo last season?”

More notable futures:

  • $25,000 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC at 7-2. (SuperBook) “We’re pretty big losers to the Buccaneers,” Murray said. “They only keep betting the Buccaneers.”

  • $10,000 on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 15-2. (PointsBet)

  • $2,500 on Eagles to win the NFC at 11-1. (DraftKings)

  • $2,500 on Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to win MVP at 100-1. (Caesars Sportsbook)

  • $2,000 on Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray to win MVP at 18-1. (DraftKings)

  • $2,000 on Recent Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston to guide the NFL in passing yards at 50-1. (Caesars Sportsbook)

  • $1,000 on the Saints to win the Super Bowl at 50-1. (PointsBet)

  • $1,000.70 on Cleveland Browns WR David Bell to win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months at 80-1. (DraftKings)

  • $1,000 on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to win MVP at 18-1. (DraftKings)

2 Related

Odds and ends

  • San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance, at 40-1, represents WynnBET’s largest liability within the sportsbook’s odds to win regular-season MVP market.

  • The Texans have attracted more bets to win the Super Bowl than the Seahawks, Panthers and Falcons at DraftKings.

  • The Seahawks have the identical Super Bowl odds (125-1) because the Jaguars at Caesars Sportsbook.

  • The Eagles’ odds to win the NFC East have shortened from +350 to +190 on the SuperBook. “That is been a pointy bet,” Murray said. “It looks like we definitely opened that too high.”

  • More cash has been bet on the Saints of their Week 1 game against the Falcons than has been on another team within the opening week schedule at DraftKings.

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