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NFL playoff picture at Week 17: What’s at stake for Dolphins, Giants, Commanders and more

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Week 17 kicks off with half of the wild-card spots and each No. 1 seeds still up for grabs, and our projections show how each result may shift the NFL playoff picture because the week progresses. Here’s where the total NFL playoff picture stands following Dallas’ 27-13 win at Tennessee on Thursday night.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL betting model, created by Austin Mock. The projected playoff probabilities have been adjusted to account for possible Week 18 rest scenarios, Derek Carr’s benching and injuries to quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill and Tua Tagovailoa.

AFC Playoff Picture

SEEDTEAMRECORDWEEK 17 RESULT

y-1

12-3

at CIN

y-2

12-3

vs. DEN

x-3

11-4

vs. BUF

4

7-8

at HOU

x-5

10-5

vs. PIT

x-6

9-6

vs. LAR

7

8-7

at NE

x — Clinched playoff berth | y — Clinched division title

Buffalo Bills

The Bills play the Bengals on Monday night within the most-anticipated matchup of Week 17. A Buffalo win and a Chiefs loss to the Broncos would clinch the No. 1 seed for the Bills with per week to go, but Kansas City is a 12.5-point home favorite this weekend.

Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Patriots

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 55.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 12.5 percent

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Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs face a straightforward remaining schedule as they chase the Bills for the No. 1 seed. After playing the Broncos, who just fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett, the Chiefs close out the regular season with a Raiders team that has benched quarterback Derek Carr.

Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Raiders

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 36.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 13.8 percent

Cincinnati Bengals

Our model gives the Bengals a 72.7 percent probability to win the AFC North. Here’s how they will achieve this in Week 17:

  • Bengals beat Bills and Ravens lose or tie against Steelers
  • Bengals tie Bills and Ravens lose to Steelers

Cincinnati still has an out of doors shot on the No. 1 seed, but losing to Buffalo on Monday would extinguish that hope.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, vs. Ravens

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 8.1 percent | To win Super Bowl: 7.1 percent

Jacksonville Jaguars

The winner of Week 18’s Titans-Jaguars game in Jacksonville will win the AFC South. But what if the sport ends in a tie? Since the Titans lost Thursday night and Jacksonville won the primary head-to-head meeting with Tennessee, the Jaguars can win the division with a tie in Week 18 even in the event that they lose to the Texans this weekend.

Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Titans

Odds: To make playoffs: 79.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.7 percent

Baltimore Ravens

A Ravens win in Week 17 will ensure Baltimore and Cincinnati play for the AFC North title when the 2 teams meet of their regular season finale.

Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Bengals

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.6 percent

Los Angeles Chargers

After clinching their playoff berth in Week 16, the Chargers are playing just for wild-card seeding at this point. They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins, and so they currently have a greater conference record (7-4) than the Ravens (6-4) and each team in wild-card contention that’s yet to clinch.

If the Chargers win one in every of their final two games, they will finish no worse than the No. 6 seed. In the event that they lose out, they will’t overtake the 10-win Ravens for the No. 5 seed.

Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Broncos

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 4.6 percent

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Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will try and clinch a playoff berth this weekend without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who entered concussion protocol earlier this week. Here’s how Miami can secure a spot within the postseason for the primary time since 2016:

  • Dolphins beat Patriots and Jets lose or tie at Seattle
  • Dolphins tie Patriots, Jets lose at Seattle and Steelers lose or tie at Baltimore

Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Jets

Odds: To make playoffs: 68.4 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 2.7 percent

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Recent England Patriots

Losing to the Dolphins this week would eliminate Recent England from playoff contention. Winning out — which can be easier if Buffalo rests starters in its regular season finale — would ensure Recent England makes the postseason.

The Patriots also can make the playoffs by beating the Dolphins and losing to the Bills, but that may require help, including the Jets winning at Miami in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Bills

Odds: To make playoffs: 9.6 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.3 percent

Recent York Jets

The Jets’ path to the playoffs is pretty easy: They should win out and see the Patriots lose another game. Getting quarterback Mike White back should make that more doable.

Remaining schedule: at Seattle, at Miami

Odds: To make playoffs: 18.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.2 percent

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Tennessee Titans

After losing to the Cowboys on Thursday night, the Titans must beat the Jaguars in Week 18 to make the postseason.

Remaining schedule: at Jaguars

Odds: To make playoffs: 22.2 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.7 percent

Pittsburgh Steelers

Along with Pittsburgh winning out, the Steelers’ narrow path to the postseason requires the Dolphins to lose out, the Jets to lose to the Seahawks in Week 17 and the Patriots to lose or tie in Buffalo in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Browns

Odds: To make playoffs: 1.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.0 percent

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Las Vegas Raiders

Though technically still in contention for a playoff spot, the Raiders signaled they’re giving up on this season once they benched Derek Carr. They’ll start Jarrett Stidham against the 49ers this weekend.

Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, vs. Chiefs

Odds: To make playoffs: 0.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.0 percent

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Eliminated

  • Browns (6-9)
  • Colts (4-10-1)
  • Broncos (4-11)
  • Texans (2-12-1)

NFC Playoff Picture

SEED

  

TEAM

  

RECORD

  

WEEK 17 RESULT

  

x-1

13-2

vs. NO

y-2

12-3

W vs. NYG

y-3

11-4

W vs. WAS

4

7-8

vs. CAR

x-5

12-4

W at TEN

6

8-6-1

vs. IND

7

7-7-1

vs. CLE

x — Clinched playoff berth | y — Clinched division title

Philadelphia Eagles

A win against the Saints this weekend would clinch the NFC East and the No. 1 seed for the Eagles. Philadelphia would also clinch the division title with a tie against Recent Orleans, but in that situation, the Eagles could only secure the No. 1 seed this weekend if the Vikings lose or tie at Green Bay.

Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, vs. Giants

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 91.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 15.0 percent

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings’ narrow path to the No. 1 seed requires them to win out while the Eagles lose out. Our model considers that impossible. But can the Vikings hold off the 49ers for the No. 2 seed?

Remaining schedule: at Packers, at Bears

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 2.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 8.6 percent

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco securing the No. 1 seed requires the 49ers to win out, the Eagles to lose out and the Vikings to drop one in every of their final two games. That’s unlikely, however the 49ers have one in every of the league’s easiest remaining schedules. After playing the Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders this week, they’ll face the Cardinals in what could be Kliff Kingsbury’s last game as Arizona’s head coach.

Remaining schedule: at Raiders, vs. Cardinals

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 3.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 8.2 percent

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs can clinch the NFC South with a win against the Panthers this weekend. If the Bucs lose, they’ll cede the head-to-head tiebreaker to Carolina, dropping Tampa’s playoff odds to a bit under 50 percent.

Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, at Falcons

Odds: To make playoffs: 80.8 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.0 percent

Dallas Cowboys

Beating the Titans on Thursday keeps alive the Cowboys’ slim probabilities at winning the NFC East and securing the conference’s No. 1 seed — at the very least until the Eagles play the Saints.

Remaining schedule: at Commanders

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 1.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 5.9 percent

Recent York Giants

The Giants will clinch a spot within the postseason and lock up the No. 6 seed with a win in either of their two remaining games, and so they might face an Eagles team resting starters in Week 18.

Even without winning this week, the Giants can get into the playoffs with various combos of losses and ties by the Commanders, Seahawks, Lions and Packers.

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Eagles

Odds: To make playoffs: 86.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.4 percent

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Washington Commanders

Washington, which is returning to Carson Wentz quarterback, can clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win against Cleveland and losses by the Seahawks and Lions and a loss or tie by the Packers.

Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Cowboys

Odds: To make playoffs: 29.2 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

Within the hunt

Seattle Seahawks

Multiple paths to the playoffs still exist for Seattle. The Seahawks don’t even have to win out, though that will surely help. Losing to the Jets this week would drop the Seahawks’ playoff odds to 7.7 percent, in keeping with our model.

Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, vs. Rams

Odds: To make playoffs: 22.6 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

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Detroit Lions

Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreakers over each the Giants and Commanders, however the Lions’ Week 4 loss to the Seahawks looms large. If Detroit loses to Green Bay in Week 18, evening the head-to-head series, the following tiebreaker can be division record: The Lions are currently 3-1 against the division, while the Packers 2-2.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Packers

Odds: To make playoffs: 32.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

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Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s simplest path to the playoffs is to win out while the Commanders lose one game. The Packers would still have 2.9 percent probability of creating the postseason even in the event that they lost to the Vikings this week, but they can not make the playoffs without beating the Lions in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, vs. Lions

Odds: To make playoffs: 27.7 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

Carolina Panthers

After beating the Bucs earlier this season, the Panthers are accountable for their fate. Win out, and so they’re NFC South champions.

Remaining schedule: at Tampa Bay, at Recent Orleans

Odds: To make playoffs: 17.8 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.6 percent

Recent Orleans Saints

The Saints can be NFC South champions in the event that they win out and the Bucs drop each of their remaining games. After all, that’s easier said than done when the Saints’ next game is a visit to Philadelphia.

Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia, vs. Carolina

Odds: To make playoffs: 2.1 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.1 percent

(Photo: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)

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