September 26, 2022 at 11:07 a.m. EDT
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have already put themselves on a path toward the postseason. (Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post)
We’re only three weeks into the NFL season, yet we have already got a way of who a few of the playoff teams shall be. From 2002, the yr the NFL expanded to 32 franchises, through last yr, 101 teams began the season 3-0. Almost three-fourths of them (72 teams, 71 percent) made the playoffs, and eight of those 72 went on to win the Super Bowl. The Philadelphia Eagles, winners of their first three games after beating the Washington Commanders, 24-8, Sunday, thus have a very good probability of qualifying. The Miami Dolphins, after defeating the Buffalo Bills, 21-19, are also on this potential postseason grouping. The Latest York Giants will join them in the event that they can defeat the Dallas Cowboys on “Monday Night Football.”
The Eagles are actually the co-favorites to win the NFC, with the Bucs, at +375.
Philly is 9-1 to win the Super Bowl, tied for the fourth-best odds via @CaesarsSports.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) September 26, 2022
Las Vegas, then again, is winless and can probably should wait one other yr to return to the playoffs. The Raiders narrowly lost to the Tennessee Titans, 24-22, and find themselves within the cellar of the AFC West. Over the past 20 years, just one team out of 98, the 2018 Houston Texans, overcame a 0-3 start and made the playoffs. That’s tough news for the Raiders, the one 0-3 team within the league.
Knowing the likelihood of a playoff spot at this juncture of the season can save a number of money on the betting booth. It’s hard to back any 0-3 team to make the playoffs at a price shorter than +9900 (bet $100 to win $9,900) let alone commit money to a Super Bowl future for that very same squad. DraftKings is offering the Raiders at +350 to make the playoffs, which suggests a 22 percent probability, and +6000 to win the Super Bowl. Neither could be a clever investment right now.
Teams starting 3-0, meanwhile, could possibly be good values to make the playoffs if you happen to can find prices at -245 or higher (wager $245 to win $100). You almost certainly won’t, after all, since the oddsmakers know this as well. Philadelphia is currently -2000 at DraftKings to make the playoffs, and the Dolphins are -400.
The importance of a meaningless touchdown should never be underestimated.
For many, the touchdown scored by the Cleveland Browns against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the ultimate play of Thursday night’s game didn’t mean a complete lot. The rating already had gone over the closing 38.5-point total after the Steelers’ Chris Boswell kicked a late field goal to make it a 23-17 game, and Pittsburgh, still down six after a Browns punt, had time for under one last play from its 4-yard line.
Denzel Ward’s recovery of the Steelers’ botched Stanford-band play after the clock had hit zero made the ultimate rating 29-17, killing the hopes of anyone who had grabbed the under when the entire opened at 40.5 points (it was bought all the way down to 38.5 before kickoff). The rating also doomed anyone who had teased the Steelers up from +4 to +10 and had a profound effect on DFS contests:
If you happen to think your night goes bad, the people in 1st place on DK, winning $239,000, dropped to forty second due to that meaningless defensive touchdown. They ended up winning only $750 pic.twitter.com/9H9VG99m6E
— Walter Cherepinsky (@walterfootball) September 23, 2022
Washington State, a 6.5-point home underdog to Oregon on Saturday, took a 12-point lead with 6:42 left within the fourth quarter after Cameron Ward and Robert Ferrel connected on a one-yard touchdown pass. The Cougars gave the impression to be in good condition not just for the quilt however the outright win as well.
The Geese marched 75 yards in only 2:46 to attain and make it 34-29, after which they scored twice more on a 50-yard touchdown pass and a pick-six. With 1:01 left, it was Oregon 44, Washington State 34, and a Geese cover was now seemingly within the bag.
But before Oregon -6.5 bettors could get to the window, Washington State launched into a desperate final drive. On third and 22, Ward connected with Donovan Ollie for a 60-yard gain to the Oregon 1, and Nakia Watson scored on the following play to present the Cougars the unlikely cover with one second left. Final rating: Oregon 44, Washington State 41.
Losing on a late missed field goal is bad. Losing on a late field goal since the ball hits the tippy-top of the upright … I’m undecided there’s even a word for that.
Down 23-21 with 1:30 left, Arkansas needed Cam Little’s 42-yard field goal to take the lead. However the ball did things previously thought unattainable, and Texas A&M — favored by 1.5 points — took home each the win and the quilt.
Caesar’s had two player props of interest this weekend.
In line with ESPN’s David Purdum, a lion’s share of the cash at Caesar’s was wagered on Raiders quarterback Derek Carr tossing two touchdowns Sunday, and he delivered. His first was a five-yard pass to newly acquired Davante Adams, and the second was to Mack Hollins with 1:14 remaining in Las Vegas’s game against Tennessee.
Purdum also reported Caesar’s had a number of motion on Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs to attain the primary touchdown of Buffalo’s game against Miami, attracting greater than twice as much money as another player offered. Unfortunately, Diggs failed to achieve the top zone Sunday. It’s also price noting this sort of player prop is one to avoid, since it’s too difficult to seek out any exploitable pattern in these markets.