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NFL simulation gives Raiders a 32.8% probability of constructing the playoffs


For the primary time in just a few a long time, it appears like the Raiders finally have a roster that would compete for a Super Bowl. The offense must be amongst the very best within the NFL and so they have a pair of EDGE rushers that ought to strike fear into opponents.

But how likely is it that the Raiders even make the playoffs? In a recent article by Austin Mock of The Athletic, he simulated the NFL season 100,000 times to see just how likely it was that the Raiders would make the playoffs (and win the Super Bowl).

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His model projected the Raiders to win between 8 and 9 games in most seasons, narrowly missing the playoffs. Within the 100,000 simulations, the Raiders made the playoffs just 32.8% of the time.

One among the largest concerns that Mock’s model had for the Raiders this season was their pass defense. Here’s what he needed to say in regards to the defense entering the season:

“The defense doesn’t make any improvement from a unit that ranked twenty sixth in EPA/Dropback (rbsdm.com), and the Raiders don’t even sniff the playoffs.

Sure, they made the playoffs last season with the defense playing that poorly, however the AFC and the division have improved. The Raiders won’t have the opportunity to survive a horrid pass defense playing two games apiece against Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.”

Within the simulation, the Raiders won the Super Bowl just over one percent of the time. That’s not all that surprising considering how much of an unknown their offensive line and secondary are entering the season.

But when the Raiders can clean up those two spots because the 12 months goes along, they may have a legitimate probability of constructing a run within the AFC. Useless to say, this season must be plenty of fun for fans of the Las Vegas Raiders.

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