NFL Week 14 best bets
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will mix to present their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we catch up with to kickoff.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: That is essentially the most surprising line move of the week because the Vikings (10-2) opened as short road favorites, however the line has flipped to the Lions being favored.
The Lions have been one in all my favorite teams to back the past two seasons, but those are mostly within the role of underdogs. (They were 11-6 ATS last yr despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 8-4 ATS this yr, including five covers in a row.) While the Lions covered as short 1-point favorites of their 40-14 rout of the Jaguars on Sunday, the last time they were favored (and the one other time this season) was as 3-point chalk versus the Seahawks in Week 4 as they lost 48-45.
This can be a clear case of where we like to fade a team within the unfamiliar favorite’s role. Nevertheless, we feel more confident in only using the Vikings in 2-team, 6-point teasers and count on the Vikings to play one other one-score game (they’re 9-0 in one-score games to date this season, so we still might take the regular spread or on the cash line) and we’ll pair them with the Ravens, as they’re still a greater team than the Steelers even with Tyler Huntley in for Lamar Jackson.
Pick: Vikings +8/Ravens +8 (two-team, six-point teaser)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: This was Jets 10 after we gave it out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and in our “Tuley’s Takes Today” column on Monday. It was bet right down to 9.5 early within the week but is back to 10 at nearly all sportsbooks nationwide as of early Thursday evening.
Double-digit dogs are 11-7 ATS (61.1%) this season, but we also faded these same Bills after they were 9.5-point faves on the Lions on Thanksgiving and covered because the Lions only lost 28-25. We also cashed with the Jets 10.5 in the primary meeting between these two teams this season within the Bills’ 20-17 win in Week 9 and the Packers 10.5 the week before because the Bills only won 27-17. The Bills have been letting teams stick around all season. They’re only 5-6-1 ATS.
The Jets did not cover as 3-point dogs of their 27-22 loss on the Vikings last week, but that they had their possibilities, and we expect one other one-score game here because the Vikings also went toe-to-toe with the Bills of their classic 33-30 battle in Week 10.
Pick: Jets 10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Brady Kannon: The Steelers have been trending positively ever since their defensive star T.J. Watt returned to the lineup and fellow defensive standout Minkah Fitzpatrick returned to full health after an appendectomy. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has improved upon his passer rating in each of the last 4 weeks, a stretch wherein Pittsburgh has won three of 4 games.
There are still issues, nonetheless. The three wins within the last 4 weeks have come against the Saints, Colts, and Falcons. In nine games this season, Pickett has only thrown 4 touchdown passes. The Steelers rank thirty first in Yards Per Pass Attempt. They’re thirtieth in Yards Per Play and twenty sixth in Red Zone Offense. What’s more, they might not have Watt or wide receiver Diontae Johnson within the lineup this week against the Ravens. Each were limited in practice on Wednesday and didn’t practice on Thursday. Johnson is coping with a hip injury, while Watt has a rib issue. Watt played 87% of the snaps last week against the Falcons but had no sacks and three tackles.
This week will likely be a step up in school as they face an old division rival within the Baltimore Ravens. The massive story is, in fact, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who will likely miss this game with a knee injury. Jackson’s backup Tyler Huntley, nonetheless, might be the most effective backup quarterbacks within the league, and while he will not be as explosive as Jackson, he can run. All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley is an enormous consider my decision-making on this game. He’s an enormous piece in each the running game and the passing game for the Ravens. He was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and limited on Thursday. He’s missed the past two games, and my feeling is he will likely be able to go this Sunday.
The Ravens’ defense has been getting steadily higher over the course of the season. They’ve given up lower than 16 points per game on average over their last six contests. They rank 2nd in third-down defense, fifth in sacks, and ninth in Yards Per Point allowed.
My look-ahead line got here to Ravens -11. This week’s numbers come to Ravens -9.5, Ravens -8.5, and Ravens -6.5. Now, we must adjust these numbers for Jackson being replaced by Huntley, and for that, I might adjust by 4.5 points. Each set of numbers I make would still have Baltimore as the favourite in the sport. With the Ravens catching lower than a field goal, I opted for a teaser, taking them as much as 8.5. I also made a smaller play on UNDER the entire.
Pick: Ravens teased to eight.5 ( 7.5 at worst) & UNDER 37 or higher
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Femi Abebefe: From a number standpoint, I believe there’s a smallish edge in backing the Giants here as a consequence of the indisputable fact that we’ve seen the Eagles get bet against near kickoff over the past few weeks. There needs to be something about Philly that turns the betting market off.
Hard to see what that’s after their impressive performance against the Titans last Sunday. With that said, this can be a spot to fade them as they’re about to start a stretch of three straight road games. Couple that with everyone crowning them as one of the best team within the NFL with their league-best record 11-1.
Also, on the Recent York side, I believe this will likely be a kitchen sink type of game from a respected coaching staff. When you have a look at the Giants’ schedule, you’ll realize they’ll’t afford to drop too many games in the event that they intend to make the playoffs. After this week, they’re taking trips to Washington and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks.
While they’re banged up and appear to be reeling, I believe we see one of the best the G-Men must offer this weekend against the rival Eagles.
Pick: Giants +7
Dave Tuley: The Eagles (11-1) still have the NFL’s best record and the within track on the NFC’s No. 1 seed/first-round bye with a one-game lead over the Vikings (plus the tiebreaker for beating them in Week 2). Nevertheless, the NFC East still isn’t secured as they only have a two-game lead over the Cowboys (and a rematch coming up in Week 15), plus that is the primary of two games versus the Giants (7-4-1).
The Eagles have the No. 3 offense and No. 2 defense in yards gained and yards allowed per game, while the Giants have done it with errors because the offense ranked No. 22 and the defense is No. 23. Despite their lofty record, the Eagles were only 5-5 ATS before back-to-back covers of their 40-33 win vs. the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites and a 35-10 rout of the Titans as 4.5-point home faves to enhance to 7-5 ATS. But now they’re on the road, where they’re only 1-4 ATS.
The Giants have been exceeding expectations all season and are 9-3 ATS (5-2 ATS at home) after covering as 2.5-point home underdogs of their 20-20 tie versus the Commanders on Sunday. This line has risen to Eagles -7, making the Giants a live home dog. NFL teams in that role are 40-29-4 ATS (58%), including 7-1 ATS when getting 7 points or more.
Pick: Giants +7
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: The Browns have had Cincinnati’s number, going 5-0 within the last five head-to-head meetings with a mean of 33.2 points per game on offense. If Deshaun Watson plays anything like he played last week, that streak goes to come back to an end. Watson was 12-of-22 for 131 yards with a pick, and the Browns, who’ve had a top-10 offense throughout the season by EPA/play and Success Rate, were twenty sixth and twenty fifth, respectively, in those categories against a terrible Texans defense.
The primary meeting between these teams this season was a rout. Cleveland won 32-13 and outgained Cincinnati by greater than 200 yards. That Halloween game is the just one the Bengals have lost out of their last six games. Burrow went into that game on a heater with eight total touchdowns within the previous two games but was sacked five times by the Browns’ defense and kept in check.
Will Watson be closer to game speed this week? Will the Browns harass Burrow again? There are a whole lot of query marks to this game, which is why the UNDER is the play. Cincinnati puts up points, but this can be a methodical offense, leading the league in average time per drive and sitting fifth in plays per drive. Their 5.7 yards per play rank eighth and 11.3 yards per reception rank fifteenth. They’re an efficient offense but not a big-play offense. Neither is Cleveland with the present state of Watson.
Pick: UNDER 47
Dave Tuley: Deshaun Watson’s season debut was anticlimactic as he was 12-for-22 for just 131 yards and an INT for a QBR of 28.5 and didn’t lead the offense to a rating until a field goal early within the fourth quarter. The Browns’ only TDs of their 27-14 win over the lowly Texans were on a punt return and two defensive TDs.
We expect an improved performance from Watson together with RB Nick Chubb, who’s second within the NFL with 1,119 rushing yards. Even with Jacoby Brissett starting the primary 12 games of the season, the Browns are No. 6 in average yards per game (just behind the Bengals at No. 5), so the potential is there.
Meanwhile, the Bengals (8-4) have survived the “Super Bowl loser hangover” for the part, as they’re tied for the AFC North lead with the Ravens but might be due for a letdown after beating the Chiefs 27-24 on Sunday.
Marc Lawrence of playbook.com (and a contestant within the Circa Friday Invitational on VSiN on Friday nights) also shares a system that teams just like the Bengals that went from worst to first of their division the prior season are 42-66-3 ATS, including 11-29 ATS as division hosts. Fade away.
Pick: Browns +6
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: Despite getting blown out 35-10 by the Eagles, the Titans (7-5) still hold a three-game lead within the AFC South over the Colts (4-8-1) and these Jaguars (4-8), which they face twice in the ultimate five weeks. That was the second straight loss for the Titans, who began the season 0-2 but went 7-1 (and 8-0 ATS) in between.
Tennessee’s offense ranks just No. 29 in yards per game because it relies on RB Derrick Henry, who’s third within the league with 1,078 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has mostly succeeded within the game-manager role, but he was sacked six times by the Eagles and wasn’t capable of rally the Titans after they fell behind, which is a priority.
The Jaguars have looked much-improved at times this season—including upsets of the Colts, Chargers, Raiders, and Ravens—but they’ve still lacked consistency with a middle-of-the-road No. 17 scoring offense (behind second-year QB Trevor Lawrence) and a No. 25 defense.
The Titans still aren’t receiving much respect from oddsmakers and the general public, so this line is simply too short for me to take the dog, though I just like the UNDER 41.5 points as I don’t expect either offense to place up a whole lot of points in what looks like a 17-13 game or something similar.
Pick: UNDER 41
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: We cashed with the Broncos 8.5 on the Ravens this Sunday as one in all our early NFL picks which were so hot, and we’ll count on their No. 3 defense to maintain them close enough, after which have Russell Wilson and the struggling Denver offense do simply enough to get the point-spread cover as they did within the 10-9 loss on Sunday. That improved them to 4-3 ATS within the underdog role.
We don’t expect this to be a low-scoring defense with the Chiefs’ high-powered No. 1 offense, however the Chiefs (9-3) do are inclined to let teams stick around as they’re 4-8 ATS on the season, including 3-7 ATS as chalk.
Pick: Broncos +9.5
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: The Seahawks (7-5) rallied to beat the Rams 27-23 in Week 13 to remain one game behind the 49ers within the NFC West and within the thick of the wild card race with the teams within the NFC East.
Geno Smith continues to shine after inheriting the QB job from Russell Wilson and leads the league’s No. 9 offense in yards per game (No. 5 in scoring), though we’re waiting to see if RB Kenneth Walker III’s ankle sprain responds throughout the week. Seattle doesn’t have a Legion of Doom defense anymore, rating No. 30 in yards allowed per game, in order that’s a part of the rationale they’re only 6-point favorites on this matchup with the Panthers (4-8).
Carolina is coming out of its bye week, and interim coach Steve Wilks has decided to stick with Sam Darnold at QB after he led the team to a 23-10 win vs. the Broncos. The Panthers also depend on RB D’Onta Foreman, who has 4 100-yard games in his last six starts since replacing the departed Christian McCaffrey. Despite splitting those games 3-3 SU, the Panthers are literally on a 5-1 ATS run. They’ve been more competitive than expected as they’ve upset the Buccaneers, Falcons, and Broncos while also covering in SU losses to the Falcons and Ravens.
Pick: Panthers +4.5
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: The Buccaneers have a tall task ahead of them this week against the highest defense within the NFL, but their hopes of scoring points are on the shoulders of No. 12. Tom Brady goes to must throw the ball a ton on this game, very similar to he has a lot of the season. Tampa Bay’s play distribution features 524 pass attempts from Brady and 267 rush attempts. The Buccaneers have rushed for 3.3 yards per carry, so that they’re not going to find a way to run it on San Francisco.
There are a couple of Brady props to select from this week, but my favorite is OVER 37.5 pass attempts at -110. Because it is, Brady has gone over that number in nine of 12 games and topped out at 58 attempts. Two of the three games wherein he didn’t go over that total were in Weeks 1 and a pair of. By sheer volume, I also like Brady OVER 254.5 passing yards, but this is a superb 49ers defense, and he could also be throwing the ball away slightly greater than he’d prefer to. With that in mind, I believe the pass attempts are a greater plan of action.
Pick: Brady OVER 37.5 Pass Attempts
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: The Dolphins are in an incredible position to get back on the right track and erase the bad memories of last week’s egg against the 49ers. The Chargers are more likely to be still missing not less than Corey Linsley and possibly Trey Pipkins as well, so that they’re going to have issues protecting Justin Herbert. Herbert had a gaudy yardage total last week, but he also threw the ball 47 times to provide just 20 points.
The Chargers couldn’t run the ball again and managed just 5.2 yards per play. Additionally they gave up 6.8 yards per play, which is a nasty sign going up against a Dolphins team that leads the NFL in yards per reception by a considerable margin and is second in yards per play to the Chiefs. They’re fifth in EPA/play, while the Chargers, ravaged by injuries a lot of the season, are nineteenth.
You’ll be able to’t be nineteenth in EPA/play on offense for those who are going to be a borderline bottom-five defense. That describes the Chargers, who even have those key injuries in the combo again this week. Miami has a mean defense but pairs it with a top-five offense. In other words, I don’t think -3 is large enough here and even -3.5 is value taking, though -3 at -120 is clearly a greater use of your money than -3.5.
Pick: Dolphins -3