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NFL Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Bets: Patriots RB Stevenson, Bucs WR Godwin, more | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks


• Bet Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD (+105) at Browns: With Damien Harris sidelined, Stevenson went off in Week 5 for 25-161 rushing against the Lions, who’re bad, but not quite as bad as Cleveland vs. the run (league-low 34.8 PFF run-defense grade, six TDs allowed).

• Bet Bucs WR Chris Godwin anytime TD (+135) at Steelers: PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Tool shows Godwin has the week’s third-best matchup advantage against the Steelers defenders. 

Recent users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free 12 months’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.

Last updated: Fri. Oct. 14, 2:35 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 min

After one other offensive dud on Thursday Night Football, more low-scoring games could possibly be ahead as only two totals currently are over 46 in Week 6. After all, we love games with higher totals, but we are able to still analyze these matchups and find value in a number of players who will probably be celebrating in the long run zone Sunday afternoon.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (50.5)

Bet: Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+170)

• Zach Ertz has seen double-digit targets in three of the Cardinals’ five games: Now, Ertz and the Cards face a Seattle defense that has allowed 17.6 yards per catch ( most within the NFL) and the third-most TDs to opposing tight ends (4).

• Seattle ranks dead-last in successful defensive drive percentage (48.1%): Allowing opposing offenses to attain a touchdown or field goal on 52% of their drives. Arizona isn’t far behind with the 4th-worst percentage (54.2%). We may need a shootout between two mediocre teams.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (54)

Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD (+150)

• All signs point to a different offensive shootoutThe Bills and Chiefs rank No. 1 and No. 2 in passing EPA per play, and success rate, they usually rank in the highest three in successful offensive drive percentage. Each Buffalo and Kansas City rating on nearly 50% of their offensive possessions.

• Allen had 11 rushing attempts in each games against Chiefs last season: And his 11 rushes contained in the red zone this season rank second within the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (44)

Bet: WR Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+135)

• Chris Godwin is beginning to get healthy and grow to be an enormous a part of this offense again: Over the past two weeks, he has been targeted 16 times, hauling in 13 catches. It is barely a matter of time before he finds the tip zone. 

• PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Tool shows Godwin has the week’s third-best matchup advantage against the Steelers defenders. 

Carolina Panthers (42) @ Los Angeles Rams (-10)

Bet: WR Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (-145)

• Panthers have only allowed three touchdowns to opposing wide receivers: On paper, that appears great, but 4 of the five teams they’ve faced to this point rank in the underside half of the league in receiving yards, and just one team (Cleveland Browns) ranks in the highest 15 in passing success rate. 

• Kupp leads the NFL in targets (64) and receptions (49), despite double and even triple coverage because the Rams’ current lone receiver threat: And he has the very best overall matchup in Week 6, per PFF WR/CB matchup tool.

Recent England Patriots (43) @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+105)

• While Damien Harris is out, Stevenson is the person: Last week, Stevenson rushed 25 times for 161 yards, though it was against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks dead-last in EPA allowed per play and thirty first in success rate vs. the run. More excellent news for the Patriots and Stevenson: the Browns are currently the worst.

Cleveland has PFF’s lowest-graded run defense: 34.8, and the Browns even have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs (6). With Bailey Zappe getting the beginning again, the Patriots will proceed to lean on Stevenson.

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