- Allen regains top spot: There was more shifting around than significant movement at the highest of the 2022 quarterback rankings this week, as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes switched places, with the previous rising to No. 1.
- Smith rising while Stafford falls: The largest surprises this 12 months are Geno Smith moving all the best way as much as No. 3 while Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford has fallen to the third worst rating within the NFL.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
For these rankings, I utilize a statistical technique called Bayesian Updating to unravel the sample size issues. It is a technique PFF has used persistently previously, notably once we checked out a variety of different draft classes and why the Latest York Jets needed to draft a quarterback in 2021.
With Bayesian Updating, we are able to use the dynamics of the historical quarterback market and individual results to project their PFF grades and expected points added (EPA) per play. Even in a single season, there might be drastic differences in sample sizes for quarterbacks. Because of this comparing unadjusted rate stats side by side can provide an excessive amount of credit to those that aren’t an enormous a part of their offense and too little credit for individuals who dominate as their team’s No. 1.
You could find details of how Bayesian Updating is implemented here, including a primer on how we construct a posterior belief (or projection) based on historical quarterback results after which update the beliefs (projections) for every quarterback with their actual NFL results on a play-by-play basis.
CONTEXTUALIZE 2022 PERFORMANCE
Before I dive straight into the PFF analytical quarterback rankings, I’ve provided some visualizations to provide proper context to how these quarterbacks performed in PFF grade and EPA per play and a few necessary data splits that show the potential for regression moving forward.
This week, I’m including multiple quarterbacks from teams if each has greater than 40 dropbacks this season.
Geno Smith has the most effective PFF offensive grade and is solidly in the highest five in efficiency. Quarterbacks whose efficiency most exceeded our grading were Jimmy Garoppolo, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen. On the flip side, Davis Mills and Baker Mayfield have graded higher than their expected points based efficiency.
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