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Odds Aaron Judge breaks Yankees’ 61-year-old home run record


The Yankees still have loads of work to do as a team to wrap up the AL East, but that’s just one in every of the massive stories surrounding the team as we head down the stretch.

Aaron Judge, the -1100 favorite to win MVP, is sitting on 55 home runs, and has a likelihood to interrupt Roger Maris’ 61-year-old record for many dingers by a Yankee in a single season.

Maris completed the feat within the famous 1961 season where he and Mickey Mantle went toe-to-toe to interrupt Babe Ruth’s record of 60 home runs in 1927. Ruth is the one other Yankee besides Maris to hit 60 long balls in a season. The Bambino also sits third all-time on the franchise list with a 59-homer season in 1921. 

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Bookmakers have gotten in on the Judge Hysteria, posting odds on whether or not Judge will surpass Maris and hit 62 home runs this season.

Caesars currently has the percentages set at -160 that Judge hits over 61.5 home runs and becomes the brand new record-holder. The under is juiced at +130. In line with implied probability, which takes moneyline odds and converts it to a percentage, bookmakers are implying that Judge has roughly a 61.5% of setting the record. 

Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge celebrates a house run.Getty Images

The Yankees have played 138 games this season, meaning Judge must go deep seven more times in the ultimate 24 contests to nudge past Maris. Twelve of those 24 games will come at homer-happy Yankee Stadium, but Judge doesn’t have any drastic home-road splits. He’s gone deep 29 times within the Bronx and 26 times on the road this season. 

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Judge is currently on pace for 64.5 home runs and has hit 4 over the past seven days and 7 of his last 28. If he keeps chugging along at that rhythm, he’d clear Maris with a while to spare.

From a betting standpoint, props like these are more about having some fun than anything. It’s hard to search out +EV (positive expected value) in a market like this (especially for those who’re a fan and need to back Judge) and the Over will at all times be inflated because the parents who’re going to bet into this prop are likely Yankee fans who want a bit of little bit of a sweat as they root on Judge. 

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