Welcome to Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will mix to present their best bets on every game. Check back for our picks for the Monday night game as we catch up with to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 49)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Femi Abebefe: The Cowboys weathered the storm after Dak Prescott fractured his right thumb within the season opener against Tampa Bay. Sitting at 4-2, all systems must be go together with Prescott slated to return as QB1. Nonetheless, to steal a line from the good Lee Corso, “Not so fast!”
No matter what you make of the gulf between Prescott and backup QB Cooper Rush, I don’t think you may give Dallas a full-and-healthy rating in Prescott’s first game back. I’d expect just a little rustiness from Dak, much like what we saw in his return from injury last yr against the Broncos.
I get that the Lions didn’t look good their last day out — they got blown out by the Patriots — but they’re coming off the bye and are expected to be healthier with running back D’Andre Swift coming back from injury. Also, one thing the Lions can hang their hat on is their offensive line. Detroit’s big boys up front might give you the chance to limit the quantity of havoc plays from the Dallas pass rush, which might give QB Jared Goff time to search out playmakers downfield.
There was a number of positive buzz concerning the Lions entering the season, and it definitely jumped the shark. Nonetheless, they’re now within the comfortable role of being a giant road underdog — a situation they’ve thrived in under Dan Campbell.
Pick: Lions + 7
Latest York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 43)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Femi Abebefe: The Giants are the surprise team of the season and might be headed toward their first winning season since 2016. With that said, the betting market just isn’t yet convinced.
Last week I faded Big Blue against the Ravens, but they were capable of pull one over on me with a fourth-quarter comeback. Considered one of the explanations the betting market isn’t buying this team is due to the underlying statistics. Look no further than the box rating of last week’s game, when the Giants were outgained 406 to 238 and only gained 3.8 yards per play.
Typically I’d like to fade a team off a fraudulent victory, but I don’t think that is the spot to do it. I’ve found myself on a number of Jacksonville games this season, and my principal takeaway is that this: They’re not a very good team. On paper, the Jags have some decent young talent, but they haven’t shown the know-how to win by margin as a favourite.
Rewind to last week when the Jaguars were 1.5-point underdogs against a mean Colts team without All-Pros Jonathan Taylor and Shaquille Leonard. They haven’t proven to me that they’re a justified favorite of a field goal or more. In a game of two probably below-average teams, I’ll roll with the underdog. Square, don’t care — give me the G-Men.
Pick: Giants + 3
Wes Reynolds: No person expected the Giants to be 5-1, but they were a sneaky team for an Over bet on the season win total by many (including yours truly) on the VSiN staff over the summer. In 4 of their five victories, the Giants have either been tied or trailed within the fourth quarter, including Sunday’s 24-20 victory over Baltimore. Against the Ravens, the Giants were outgained by 168 yards, as Femi noted in his writeup, and gained 3.2 fewer yards per play.
Brian Daboll actually looks just like the front-runner for Coach of the 12 months, however the G-Men have been a bit lucky up to now. The Jaguars haven’t been so fortunate. After crushing the Chargers 38-10 on the road in Week 3, “the Jags are for real” refrain emerged within the mainstream NFL media. Then things got ugly:
— After the Jaguars took a 14-0 lead on the road against a sleepy Eagles team off a divisional road win, they were dominated the remaining of the way in which and lost 29-21, getting outgained 401-219 and losing the turnover battle 5-1.
— Next, the Jags looked just like the clear higher side against the then-winless Texans, outgaining Houston 422-248, but they went 0-for-3 within the red zone and lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 13-6 home defeat.
— Finally, Jacksonville got out to an early 14-3 lead in Indianapolis on Sunday but again lost the turnover battle (1-0) as Trevor Lawrence was sacked 4 times.
The Jaguars are reeling with a three-game losing streak but they’re laying a field goal to a 5-1 team? The G-Men have been a run-oriented team this season, partially due to injuries to their receiving corps, but they may not find it as easy to run on a Jaguars front that ranks ninth in Rush DVOA.
This line looks fishy, nevertheless it shouldn’t because Jacksonville looks just like the higher team, even at 2-4. The market seems to think so because the lookahead line was also Jaguars -3, though there continues to be a possibility this line drops as more of the general public is available in.
Pick: Jaguars -160 ML
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: Each of those teams had rough starts to the season, however the Titans (3-2 and leading the AFC South) have won three straight games while the Colts have back-to-back wins over the Broncos and Jaguars.
These teams met three weeks ago with Tennessee winning 24-17 at Indy, so I’m not all in favour of the Colts at this short number (besides, the Titans are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS of their last six post-bye week games), but I do like Indy as a teaser play as this must be one other one-score game.
I used to be going to suggest pairing the Colts with the Jets (taking them from + 1.5 to + 7.5), but the entire 1.5s are actually gone on the Jets, so taking the Patriots from -8 to -2 at home against the Bears is smart.
Pick: Colts + 8.5/Patriots -2 Teaser
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 47)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: Predicted by many to be the worst team within the league, the Falcons are the most important overachievers of the season up to now as they’re 6-0 ATS (and the last undefeated ATS team) after upsetting the 49ers 28-14 on Sunday. With a hodgepodge of RBs and WRs, Marcus Mariota has had the Falcons in every game as they’ve also upset the Browns and Seahawks while covering in losses to the Saints, Rams and Buccaneers.
The Bengals began 0-2 and have been battling the “Super Bowl loser hangover” but are actually tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North at 3-3. I’m still willing to fade them as they’re still not playing in addition to they did last yr. And I’m going to follow the Falcons so long as their run lasts.
Pick: Falcons + 6.5
Wes Reynolds: Despite the 6-0 ATS record, the Falcons have been outgained in five consecutive games by nearly 80 yards per game. Pointless to say, Atlanta has had some luck.
Speaking of excellent fortune, that’s what Cincinnati got Sunday in pulling a late victory out of the hearth in Latest Orleans. The injury-riddled Saints went just 1-for-5 within the red zone, which allowed Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to attach on a 60-yard touchdown with 1:57 left to tug out the win.
The Bengals still proceed to run the ball at just twenty third in Rush DVOA (Atlanta is first in that category). Nonetheless, Cincinnati has the substantially higher defense on this matchup (No. 8 DVOA vs. Atlanta’s No. 29).
Against-the-spread records are one in every of the more overrated angles that bettors, especially newer and casual bettors, use of their handicapping. Yes, Atlanta is 6-0 ATS. But Cincinnati is on a 12-2 ATS run dating to last December.
Pick: Bengals -6.5
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 46)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: One other week when Joe Woods has a job means one other week to bet a Browns Over. The Browns seem unwilling to make a change at defensive coordinator (or special teams coordinator) until the bye week and that may likely be to their detriment again. Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have surrendered almost 31 points per game in 4 meetings against the Ravens and more of the identical is probably going coming this week.
Considered one of those 4 games was Stefanski’s debut after there was no preseason in 2020, but one other featured Tyler Huntley as a substitute of Lamar Jackson, in order that evens out to some extent. Nevertheless, the Browns are thirty first in Total DVOA on defense, rating twenty seventh against the pass and thirtieth against the run.
The Ravens are also struggling a bit on defense, particularly against the run, where they rank Twenty fourth in DVOA. That ought to actually profit Cleveland’s top-five rushing attack. Jacoby Brissett also hasn’t played bad, but his receivers haven’t given him a number of help. Still, the Browns are eighth in Total DVOA on offense, rating 14th with the pass and fourth with the run.
Baltimore boasts a top-five offense in each categories, because the defense has clearly been the weak link. We’ve got seen this total move up a bit, however the Browns defense can’t be trusted until Woods is let go, and the Ravens know that they should rating points with their defensive shortcomings.
Pick: Over 45.5 (widely available)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13, 39.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dave Tuley: The Panthers + 10 was my third early advice of the week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in VSiN’s each day email update, though I did add the caveat that I used to be waiting to bet it as we felt this line would go higher. And sure enough, despite the fact that the Bucs haven’t been as strong as expected (some blame Tom Brady’s marital distractions, some say his age is finally catching as much as him), this line was bet as much as 10.5 in any respect books and as much as 11 at DraftKings as of mid-week. Thursday night, it began jumping again, hitting 13 at DK, on news that the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers.
I get it. Most persons are running to the betting windows or their phone app to fade the dysfunctional Panthers, who fired coach Matt Ruhle after which lost 24-10 to the Rams on Sunday with WR Robbie Anderson being kicked off the sideline. Nonetheless, as ugly as that non-cover ended up being (and I used to be on the Panthers + 10 in that game, too), I still saw enough from them taking a 10-7 lead into the locker room that they’ll still stay in games even without McCaffrey. Besides, this is absolutely a play against the Bucs, who are only 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS with 4 straight non-covers. I’ll must plug my nose, but give me the ugly double-digit home dog.
Pick: Panthers + 13
Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 41.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: When the starting quarterback goes out and other people say, “Well, it could possibly’t get any worse,” that’s often a foul sign. Within the case of the Commanders, it could be entirely accurate. Taylor Heinicke does have starting experience and takes over for Carson Wentz, who was sacked 23 times in six games and had a 10-6 TD-INT ratio with just over five adjusted net yards per pass attempt.
The Commanders enter Week 7 ranked twenty sixth in third-down conversion rate and have entered the red zone only 14 times. Their 1.39 points per drive ranks twenty ninth, they usually have scored on only 23% of their offensive possessions. So, yeah, frankly, it could possibly’t really get any worse.
But how significantly better can it get? The Commanders have rushed for less than 4 yards per carry and have racked up just 10.3 yards per reception. The play-calling is uncreative and opposing defenses have adjusted, allowing just 47 points to the Commanders during the last 4 games.
The Packers, though, have forced only 4 takeaways. They’ve played well inside the base defense, holding opponents to simply 5.4 yards per play, but that can also be equal to their offensive output. Aaron Rodgers has not developed a rapport along with his receivers and that may be a big reason why the Packers are twenty seventh in points per drive with 1.54.
These are two pretty bad offenses, while the defenses have been nice. The Commanders have allowed a number of points because they’ve been put into a number of bad spots, coming in twenty sixth in opponents’ starting field position. Add all of it up and this looks like an Under.
Pick: Under 41.5
Latest York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1, 38.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: Brett Rypien is preparing as if he will likely be starting this week for the Broncos, as Russell Wilson battles shoulder and hamstring injuries. A couple of seasons ago, it will have been crazy to ask if Rypien was an upgrade over Wilson. In 2022, the query is absolutely not that outlandish.
If nothing else, a Rypien start has the prospect to galvanize a Broncos team that has been wandering aimlessly within the mountains. This offense stinks. And it shouldn’t. There’s a ton of talent on the skill positions, however the play of Wilson coupled with the outright ineptitude of first-year play-calling head coach Nathaniel Hackett have turned these Broncos into Geldings.
That being said, the Broncos are still outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play because Ejiro Evero’s defense has played so well. The Broncos are second in points allowed per drive and have been the league’s best red-zone defense, holding opponents to 4 touchdowns in 15 trips. On the offensive side, the Broncos have only three touchdowns in 15 trips, but a rallying cry could go a great distance.
The Jets don’t really set the world on fire offensively and Zach Wilson, while 3-0 as a starter, has only accomplished 56% of his passes with a 1-2 TD-INT ratio and just 191 passing yards per game. This is completely a game that the Broncos can win and I feel they get the job done.
Pick: Broncos -1
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-7, 45.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: By definition, no game in Week 7 is a must-win, but for the Raiders it comes pretty darn close. They’re off to a 1-4 start but are only -5 in point differential and have actually outgained the opposition on the season. They’re third in points per drive and lead the NFL in percentage of possessions ending in points.
The issue is that they’ve settled for field goals while the opposition has cashed in touchdowns. They’ve given up 2.43 points per possession because opponents are 14-of-17 scoring touchdowns within the red zone. The Texans don’t have a excellent offense and will produce some positive regression in that department for Las Vegas.
The Raiders are only 9-for-19 of their red-zone probabilities, so you realize what Josh McDaniels and the offensive coaching staff focused on throughout the bye week. Per Team Rankings, Las Vegas has played the sixth-toughest schedule within the NFL. Houston has played the Twenty fourth-toughest schedule and continues to be being outgained by 0.8 yards per play.
This has all of the makings of a blowout win for the Raiders against an inferior offense, inferior defense, inferior coach and an altogether step down in competition.
Pick: Raiders -7
Dave Tuley: Why are the Raiders (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) favored by a full touchdown?
OK, I comprehend it’s because they’re facing the Texans, who’re 1-3-1 SU, but not many individuals realize that they’re 3-1-1 ATS with a tie and canopy versus the Colts and a canopy of their loss on the Broncos before upsetting the Jaguars 13-6 prior to their bye week. So, are they really that much worse? I say “no” and can take the inflated line.
The Raiders’ lone win and canopy was a 9-point victory over the Broncos (who, again, the Texans also covered against) they usually did not cover in a loss to the Chargers (identical to the Texans did). As well as, the Texans are 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS of their last 11 post-bye week games, while the Raiders are on an 0-5 SU and ATS skid in post-bye week games, so we’re counting on the Texans to come back out of their bye week stronger (or no less than keep this inside one rating).
Pick: Texans + 7
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 48.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: A dose of reality could also be coming for the 49ers this week. They’ve outgained the opposition by 1.5 yards per play, as they’ve limited teams to simply 4.2 yards per play on offense. Nonetheless, they’ve also faced the Bears, Seahawks, Broncos, Rams, Panthers and Falcons. Seattle has gotten great play from Geno Smith, but none of those other teams have gotten anything resembling competent QB play. This week, the 49ers get Patrick Mahomes.
Moreover, they get Mahomes and the Chiefs coming off of a loss to the Bills. Kansas City ranks second in third-down conversion rate and red-zone touchdown percentage, so the 49ers may have a giant task attempting to get their defense off of the sector.
The addition of Christian McCaffrey is great for San Francisco, but a Thursday night trade means limited packages of plays for CMC and he could thoroughly be a non-factor. The market did drop the road a tad on the news, but the truth is the 49ers should not running the ball well, as they rank twenty sixth in Rush DVOA on offense. They’ve actually been saved by Jimmy Garoppolo, which isn’t how the blueprint for 2022 was alleged to go.
The Chiefs have had issues defending the pass, but they’ve been pretty stout against the run. With San Francisco throwing the ball loads more effectively this season, this game has the prospect for some points. Running it on the Chiefs hasn’t been a sound strategy up to now, and McCaffrey may ultimately find yourself with more touches as a receiver while working into Kyle Shanahan’s elaborate run-game scheme.
Even with San Francisco’s stellar defensive numbers up to now, this total has been on the rise and that makes a number of sense.
Pick: Over 48.5
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 50.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Adam Burke: The Chargers are off to a 4-2 start, but their victories haven’t exactly been pretty. They eked past the Browns two weeks ago after which outkicked the Broncos in an awful Monday night game to run their winning streak to a few. They’re laying a hefty number this week against a Seahawks team that has been a giant surprise up to now.
Geno Smith has been one in every of the league’s best quarterbacks with a 73.4% completion rate and 9-2 TD-INT ratio. As Russell Wilson rides the struggle bus in Denver, Smith has taken the starting gig by the horns and run with it. He’s also been aided by a renewed rushing attack, first with Rashaad Penny and now with second-round pick Kenneth Walker III. Penny had over six yards per carry before hitting injured reserve. Walker has 5.5 yards per pop and fell just wanting the century mark against the Cardinals last week in his first profession start.
Facing a Chargers defense that ranks twenty second in Rush Defense DVOA, Walker and the Seahawks should give you the chance to maneuver the ball in chunks on the bottom. Not only does that put the offense in higher positions to attain, it also eats up some clock. That will likely be vital against Justin Herbert because the Seahawks pass defense has struggled for many of the season.
Still, 5 points looks like loads because the Chargers are good at letting opponents loaf around. The Seahawks should do exactly that on this one.
Pick: Seahawks + 5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7, 44.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Femi Abebefe: Not all bets are created equal. Typically, I prefer to go by a perceived edge within the betting market. That isn’t the case on this game, no less than for me. I can see how the betting market makes this game a full touchdown in favor of the Dolphins.
Nonetheless, once I add just a little art to the science, it’s hard for me to not just like the Steelers as road underdogs. It’s well documented that Mike Tomlin is an awesome underdog coach, which got here to fruition again last week at home against the Buccaneers.
Moreover, the Steelers must be getting some pretty good injury news with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett making his way through concussion protocol and key defensive backs, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, scheduled to return.
There’s enough to love on the Steelers side, however the principal reason to fade the Dolphins is the mercurial health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has cleared concussion protocol and is slated to start out but hasn’t been seen since a Week 4 loss to the Bengals.
I actually wonder how much Mike McDaniel will change his play-calling with a purpose to prevent Tua from suffering one other injury. If the Dolphins decide to be just a little more conservative, it would prevent them from winning by multiple scores. Also working in Pittsburgh’s favor, former Dolphins coach Brian Flores is on the Steelers defensive staff and knows the strengths and weaknesses of Miami’s personnel. I’ll take one other shot with Tomlin and the Steelers as a dog.
Pick: Steelers + 7