Let’s use data from the 95 NFFC drafts the past week to power rank NFL offenses. We sorted by most players drafted in the highest 200 (not including D/ST or kickers). There have been plenty of ties. I broke ties by combining the ADP of the players drafted; the lower the number, the upper the rating (meaning the team’s players were drafted earlier in total).
Let’s have a look at some offenses in light of their rating and highlight players overrated or neglected given these results.
The highest 10
|Rank||Team||Top 200 picks||Pick ADP Total|
The Chiefs are unanimously the selection of the fantasy football community, with nine players in the highest 200. I’d quibble with Isiah Pacheco, a seventh-round real-life rookie who was benched at Rutgers for cryin’ out loud, going 129th overall. But this list doesn’t include Jerrick McKinnon, who’s a top 200-player for me. Ronald Jones should fall off the list soon, as he’s a possible cut. But he’ll just get replaced by McKinnon (510 yards, a TD and 14 catches in three playoff games). As I wrote earlier this month, the Chiefs stack is just sitting there for you. This team goes to attain a ton of points and their WRs have never been cheaper.
The Bills are clearly No. 2 if you have a look at their eight players being drafted after which their total combined ADP of 734.6. The disconnect here is with Devin Singletary. Fantasy Twitter has all the time hated this guy. They made fun of his mix performance and lack of ideal size (but he’s just short, not small). He’s the 84th overall pick because the presumed starting running back in what’s clearly the No. 2 offense within the NFL, in keeping with fantasy drafters. Singletary is coming off an awesome 2021 ending kick, which prolonged into the postseason. In his last five regular-season games, he gained 375 rushing yards on 4.7 per carry with five touchdowns (plus one other one receiving). Then he added three MORE rushing TDs within the postseason. He’s considered one of 10 RBs in NFL history with at the very least 4.4 per carry each of his first three years with a minimum of 150 carries every year. The list is a cavalcade of the most effective RBs in NFL history. Yet we treat Singletary like he’s eminently replaceable.
The Raiders have the fifth-ranked offense. The worth here is Derek Carr. I do know he’s not a runner. But I might bet straight away on the Raiders to guide the NFL in pass attempts before every other team and that makes Carr a top bet to guide the NFL in passing yards. That’s a very good base for fantasy scoring. If he doesn’t do it, he’ll be close. He’s now the QB10 at about pick No. 114 (a tenth rounder). There’s clearly plenty of talent around him in Las Vegas, in keeping with fantasy. Yet the market is lukewarm on Carr. Grabbing him within the tenth round gives you a excellent probability for a top five-scoring fantasy QB.
The Lions are middle of the pack (fifteenth) with seven players drafted but with a really modest combined ADP of 825.67 — only the Patriots were lower among the many 11 teams in that seven-player-drafted tier. I discussed in my stacking article that the Lions were the optimal SuperFlex stack because Jared Goff is so low cost (ADP 217.7 but note Goff makes the highest 200 at precisely the 2 hundredth player after we remove all of the D/ST). The most important value here appears to be D.J. Chark at 138th overall on average. If that is a median or barely higher offense, the No. 2 receiver must be picked about three rounds higher. Chark has some upside with three 100-yard games, two multi-TD games and 1,000+ receiving yards at age 23 in 2019.
We appear to be reflexively drafting Patriots. That makes them the sixteenth offense despite nobody getting any real love from drafters. The one Patriots taken before the a centesimal pick are the assumed timeshare RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. I might draft a man coming off a 15-TD season in Harris at that price. It doesn’t seem to be Stevenson goes to get the third-down job. I also like Hunter Henry because the fifteenth TE off the board; I might not be surprised in any respect if he led Recent England in TD catches.
Going toward the underside of the list, we run into some running back problems. The Titans are graded the fourth-worst offense by drafters, using this technique. So why are we drafting Derrick Henry the fifth RB overall (pick nine on average)? Within the 4 games that A.J. Brown missed last 12 months, the Titans scored 70 points (17.5 per game). And within the three games without Henry, Tennessee ran for over 200 yards as a team twice. Brown is missing ALL the Titans games this 12 months. This might be a bottom-five scoring offense. I even have Henry because the RB 10 in my rankings.
The Panthers are the thirty first offense. Drafters aren’t bullish on this offense although Baker Mayfield will probably be the starting QB. I get that Christian McCaffrey doesn’t need TDs to attain a bunch of points. But if you mix a possible bottom-five offense (if fantasy experts are to be believed) with McCaffrey’s injury history, you’ll be able to see why many truly struggle to drag the trigger on him excessive three WRs in full PPR, flex 10 (three WRs-plus-a-flex formats). He’s my second back but he’s not someone I’d draft enthusiastically.
(Top photo: Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)