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States With Abortion Bans Risk Losing Their Economic Edge

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As a bunch of conservative states enacted severe abortion restrictions last 12 months, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois sent letters to a handful of corporate executives with close ties to Texas.

Mr. Pritzker, a Democrat, urged executives to rethink basing their firms in “a state that strips its residents of their dignity.” Most staff, he wrote, didn’t need to live under a rigid abortion ban.

There was no immediate response to his overture. Firms thriving in Texas’ freewheeling business environment weren’t about to flee due to legally contested abortion regulations that weren’t certain to be enforced.

Ten months later, the political and legal landscape is radically different. And a Supreme Court decision that abolished the correct to an abortion is now threatening to reshape the lines of economic competition between conservative and liberal states.

For firms anchored in economically vibrant conservative states like Texas, Tennessee and Georgia, the rollback of girls’s rights is not any longer a hypothetical scenario but a direct challenge. It represents a possible disruption to the calculus that has made Republican-led Sun Belt states a draw for giant firms, which have tended to embrace the reduced taxes and regulations while treating local social policy as something of a sideshow.

That bargain can have grown harder in states which have imposed punitive abortion restrictions, banning the procedure altogether or limiting it nearly to the purpose of elimination.

Among the country’s biggest businesses, including JPMorgan Chase, AT&T and the Walt Disney Company, have already announced they might take steps to assist employees who need abortion access but cannot obtain it of their home states. There haven’t yet been major announcements about firms canceling expansions or relocating offices out of jurisdictions where abortion is now banned.

In states like Texas and Georgia, Republican lawmakers are effectively wagering that the local business environment will remain appealing enough to beat concerns about women’s rights. And to some conservative politicians, the danger of alienating business investment is a price value paying to eradicate abortion.

The fallout of the Supreme Court’s ruling could possibly be more dangerous for states that share Texas’ economic and social policies but lack its longstanding status as an economic powerhouse — states like Arkansas and Oklahoma, which have passed a number of the most restrictive abortion bans within the country.

  • ‘Pro-Life Generation’: Many young women mourned the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe. For others it was a moment of triumph and a matter of human rights.
  • A Shift in Demographics?: Cities across the South have challenged the supremacy of coastal supercities, attracting creative young people. Will abortion bans put an end to that?
  • Recent York’s Evolving Battle: Before Roe v. Wade, Recent York City was a haven for girls from across the country. A long time later, a recent generation of advocates has vowed that it’s going to remain so.

In places where pitched battles over abortion laws at the moment are underway, some business leaders are urging politicians to proceed with caution.

“An extreme response will not be within the state’s competitive interest,” said Sandy Baruah, president of the Detroit Regional Chamber, an influential business association in Michigan. “To the extent that the information shows today that young professionals care about this issue, I don’t want to offer young professionals a reason not to come back to Michigan to work for Michigan firms.”

Mr. Baruah’s group responded to the Supreme Court’s decision with an announcement imploring state officials to not do anything that might make Michigan less hospitable for business recruitment. The state’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, and Republican-controlled Legislature are currently clashing over the fate of a virtually century-old abortion ban that had been voided by Roe v. Wade but never formally repealed.

Mr. Baruah acknowledged that some states, like Texas, may be so well established as business havens that they might shrug off concerns about abortion rights and talent recruitment. Of his own state, Mr. Baruah said: “Michigan needs every advantage it will probably get.”

In North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, gave the same warning on Wednesday as he issued an executive order reinforcing abortion rights within the state. Mr. Cooper, who has vowed to veto any abortion ban approved by the Republican legislature, said any such measure “would have a negative effect on economic growth here in our state.”

Some Republican-controlled states which have already imposed limits on abortions, like Florida and South Carolina, are weighing whether to tighten them even further. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis, perhaps essentially the most distinguished conservative governor, has enacted a 15-week ban, but some state legislators are pushing for a so-called heartbeat bill that may block all however the earliest abortions.

Gina Raimondo, the nation’s commerce secretary, said in an interview that the states imposing rigid abortion bans were all but certain to suffer economically.

“I’ve spoken to C.E.O.s who’re rethinking those states,” said Ms. Raimondo, a Democrat. “I believe the cumulative effect will, over time, develop to be quite significant.”

Big firms are fighting a “war for talent,” Ms. Raimondo said, and particularly for female talent on condition that women make up a growing majority of recent college graduates. A former governor of Rhode Island, Ms. Raimondo predicted that firms would find it difficult to recruit expert staff in states where women’s rights and medical services were sharply curtailed.

There’s data to back up that view: A survey published this month by the Pew Research Center found that greater than 3 in 5 individuals with college and postgraduate degrees disapproved of the Supreme Court’s decision, together with nearly 70 percent of individuals under 30. Sixty-two percent of girls disapproved of the choice, based on the survey.

A young and educated cohort of staff has been pushing firms lately to be more vocal in speaking out on problems with broad social concern, including gay rights and racial justice, bringing some major corporations into conflict with the conservative-leaning states they call home.

Some liberal states are already depicting their abortion rights policies as a business advantage, reinforcing the appeal of the wealthier and more progressive states that many businesses opt to call home regardless of their taxes.

In Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican, suggested that firms should consider his state’s ironclad abortion rights protections as an inducement to expand there. Mr. Pritzker, a billionaire enterprise capitalist before entering politics, said in a recent interview that his administration was including details about Illinois’s permissive abortion laws in its recruitment pitch to firms, particularly because the court’s draft opinion leaked in a Politico article in early May.

As a political matter, Mr. Pritzker urged Democrats to lean into the message that abortion restrictions were bad for the economy.

“A Democratic president and vp, Democrats more broadly, needs to be talking about this primary as a difficulty of individual rights and freedom, and second as an economic issue,” he said. “Employees care about this.”

This will not be the primary time lately when right-wing social policies have thrown state-level business competition into turmoil. In 2016, Republican lawmakers in North Carolina triggered a multiyear business boycott by passing a law — generally known as the “bathroom bill” — requiring transgender people to make use of facilities that matched the gender they were assigned at birth. Two years earlier, the business community in Arizona mobilized in force against so-called religious freedom laws that might have opened the door to discrimination against L.G.B.T.Q. people.

In Virginia, a 2012 attempt by far-right legislators to mandate that girls receive invasive ultrasounds before obtaining an abortion caused outrage amongst moderate voters and company leaders, helping vault a pro-business Democrat into the governorship the following 12 months. In 2011, the Mississippi business community rallied to defeat a proposed state constitutional amendment that may have granted legal rights to a fertilized egg, defying the Roe v. Wade decision that was then in place.

Yet even amid that drumbeat of controversy, a handful of huge, conservative-leaning states like Texas, Florida and Georgia have defied predictions that anti-gay policies or laissez-faire gun laws would deter recent investment. Indeed, Republican governors have recently grown more willing to defy big business: When Disney recently expressed disapproval of a Florida law limiting discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity in schools, Mr. DeSantis responded with a blistering attack.

Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who served as a top official on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, questioned whether the abortion laws would do much to undermine the economic appeal of conservative states.

“These red states with low taxes, low regulation, investments in education and roads — that’s the actual contrast with these older blue states which might be sort of falling apart,” Mr. Reed said.

There isn’t a recent precedent, nonetheless, for a rightward lurch in state-level policy on the size of the crackdown on abortion that’s now underway across much of the US. The total impact of recent restrictions remains to be uncertain in lots of states, and a few bans are riddled with questions on how they will probably be enforced. A couple of, like Oklahoma’s total ban on abortion, seem like so sweeping that they might imperil other forms of reproductive care, including certain fertility treatments.

In Texas, the most important and most prosperous state where abortion is now illegal, business leaders are expressing guarded optimism that the state’s economy can weather any backlash. The equipment manufacturer Caterpillar announced in mid-June that it was relocating its headquarters from Illinois to Texas, although the court’s draft opinion had been published at that time.

Glenn Hamer, president of the Texas Association of Business, said the state’s core appeal to big corporations was still intact.

“The basics of the Texas economy and the Texas work force remain very strong and I might expect continued strong growth well into the long run,” said Mr. Hamer, whose organization has not taken a position on the state’s abortion laws.

Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, has professed no concern about abortion restrictions deterring business investment. In an email, Renae Eze, a spokeswoman for the governor, boasted of the state’s “unmatched competitive benefits,” including “no corporate or personal income taxes, a predictable regulatory climate and a young, growing and expert work force.”

Rachel Smith, the president of the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, said the patchwork of state abortion bans would strain big firms with employees in multiple jurisdictions and clashing local laws. Ms. Smith, whose organization represents firms including Amazon and Microsoft, said many recruits viewed medical care — including top-flight reproductive medicine — as a “foundational” concern in selecting their workplace.

“Was it taken with no consideration in a whole lot of places? Sure — I’m sure it was,” Ms. Smith said. “Is access to more comprehensive health care now at the highest of the list for more people? I’m sure it’s. The changes are causing people to be more deliberate.”

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