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Updated NFL playoff picture: Patriots solidify standing while Jets and Giants grow shaky

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Although we didn’t see as much change because the week prior, Week 11 of the NFL regular season saw three teams lose that were in my projected playoff picture. The Latest York Jets, Minnesota Vikings and Latest York Giants all went down, and though Vikings’ playoff odds didn’t change significantly, the Giants and Jets each saw their odds drop. The 2 Latest York teams were two of three in league who saw their probabilities drop by double digits.

I project the rating for each game and the ultimate win percentage for each team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this yr because the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after every day of games to present us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model. The tables below show each team’s record entering Week 12, their projected regular season win total, their percentage odds of creating the playoffs and the way their remaining schedule ranks 1-32 from hardest to easiest.

AFC Playoff Picture

TEAMRECORDPROJ. WINSODDSSOS RANK

8-2

13.1

>99.9%

T-25

7-3

10.8

98.0%

T-14

7-3

11.9

98.0%

T-20

7-3

10.8

92.5%

T-9

7-3

11

92.1%

31

6-4

9.3

65.3%

1

6-4

9.5

59.3%

2

5-5

8.5

39.1%

T-12

6-4

8.7

35.7%

T-17

4-6-1

7.1

8.5%

T-22

3-7

6.8

4.1%

T-20

3-7

6.1

3.7%

T-22

3-7

6.3

2.6%

T-5

3-7

6.1

1.1%

T-28

3-7

5.8

0.4%

T-5

1-8-1

2.8

0.0%

T-4

Let’s start with those Jets. The Jets saw their playoff odds decrease by 13.8 percent — second largest within the NFL — after their loss to the Latest England Patriots. Robert Salah’s team must be pretty discouraged by that considering their offense only gave up three points to the Patriots’ offense. As at all times, there may be a beneficiary to such a big swing, and the Patriots were just that. They saw the NFL’s biggest increase in consequence of their victory (15.1 percent) and now are prone to make the playoffs just lower than two-thirds of the time. That’s actually not a guarantee at this point, but considering how tight things were heading into Week 11 (4 teams with a 46- to 51-percent probability to make the playoffs but just two spots available for them), they are going to take any increase they’ll get.

The Patriots and Jets were two of those 4 teams, but what concerning the other two?

The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and saw the AFC’s second biggest jump in playoff odds in consequence. The defending AFC champs are actually 59.3 percent to make the playoffs, up 13.1 percent from last week. The opposite team was the Los Angeles Chargers, whose loss in the ultimate minutes to the Kansas City Chiefs also caused their  playoff odds to take a dive. The Chargers saw their playoff odds fall 9.7 percent (the fourth-largest decline within the NFL), and now they’re at 39.1 percent, which puts them just outside the AFC playoff picture.

The highest of the AFC isn’t quite set, but with the highest five teams within the conference have playoffs odds higher than 92 percent. The interesting note is that the Tennessee Titans are actually more prone to make the playoffs than the Buffalo Bills — by 0.05 percent — however the Bills are 18 percent more likely than the Titans to lock up the bye.

NFC Playoff Picture

TEAMRECORDPROJ. WINSODDSSOS RANK

9-1

13.9

>99.9%

T-22

8-2

12.2

99.5%

32

7-3

11.8

99.0%

27

6-4

10.6

94.1%

16

5-5

9.2

85.9%

T-25

6-4

9.6

71.1%

T-12

7-3

9.6

59.9%

3

6-5

8.7

40.7%

T-17

5-6

7.3

16.7%

19

4-6

7.1

9.7%

30

4-7

7.1

9.1%

T-14

4-7

6.4

6.6%

T-9

4-7

6.7

3.3%

T-9

3-7

6.4

2.9%

7

3-8

5.3

1.5%

T-28

3-8

4.9

0.1%

8

Now let’s talk concerning the other within the Latest York metro area. The Giants lost as small favorites to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, and the result was the largest decrease in playoff odds across all the NFL (15.8% percent). The Giants are still favored to make the playoffs at 59.9, however the loss to the Lions was a game they want they may have back. Identical to the AFC East, the beneficiary of the Giants’ demise is a divisional rival — the Washington Commanders. The Commanders took down the Houston Texans with ease and now sit at 40.7 percent to make the playoffs, an 18.9 percent increase from last week. That’s the largest mover of the week, positive or negative, across all the NFL. The Giants are still within the playoff picture for now, however the Commanders are right behind them, and the teams meet twice in the subsequent 4 weeks.

It wasn’t an incredible week for the highest two teams within the NFC, but at the very least the Philadelphia Eagles got here away with a win whereas the Minnesota Vikings weren’t so fortunate. Only one week after the Eagles were upset by the Commanders and the Vikings upset the Bills and located themselves with an incredible probability to get the bye within the NFC playoffs, those odds have flipped back to about where they were two weeks ago. The Eagles are actually greater than 99.9 percent to make the playoffs and are projected to lock up the bye in 72.1 percent of simulations. The Vikings haven’t seen an enormous decrease to their playoff odds (0.3 percent), but their odds of getting the highest seed within the NFC fell by 17.9 percent to simply 12.7 percent.

The rationale the Vikings saw their odds for the highest seed drop a lot? The Dallas Cowboys. After routing the Vikings, Dallas is projected to make the playoff 99.0 percent of the time and secure the bye and residential field advantage within the NFC playoffs 12.2 percent of the time. The showdown between the Cowboys and Eagles in Dallas on Christmas Eve could have huge NFC playoff implications. The Cowboys have the third-best odds to make the playoffs within the NFC, but they’ll likely be playing on the road to kick off the NFC playoffs. And that road game will likely be against the surging Buccaneers and Tom Brady.

Outside of the Latest York Giants, there was just one other NFC team with a double digit decrease in playoff odds — the Green Bay Packers. The Packers fell to the Titans at home last Thursday night and saw their playoff odds cut in half. Actually, it was larger than that. The Packers’ odds to make the playoffs were 19.8 percent heading into last week, and now they are only 9.1 percent. It’s not time to show off the lights in Green Bay, but they can not afford to lose too many games and certain will need some help over the ultimate six weeks.

Below is a take a look at every team’s odds to win their division, their conference and the Super Bowl:

Super Bowl Projections

TEAMDIVCONFSUPER BOWL

81.4%

27.3%

13.5%

99.3%

26.5%

13.2%

98.8%

20.6%

10.4%

59.3%

19.1%

9.8%

17.3%

14.1%

7.0%

30.3%

11.9%

6.1%

78.0%

12.0%

6.0%

79.5%

10.6%

5.5%

97.7%

11.1%

5.5%

83.9%

7.9%

3.9%

8.7%

7.3%

3.5%

21.7%

5.7%

2.9%

18.7%

6.1%

2.9%

1.2%

4.7%

2.3%

0.1%

3.6%

1.9%

0.6%

3.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.6%

1.2%

9.7%

1.2%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.5%

0.5%

0.9%

0.5%

0.7%

0.7%

0.3%

5.1%

0.5%

0.3%

1.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

1.7%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

1.4%

0.1%

0.1%

0.4%

0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

(Photo of Rhamondre Stevenson: Billie Weiss / Getty Images)

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